The purpose of this section is to simulate possible policy scenarios and thus predict the CPI over June 2009 to December 2010 for illustrative purposes. The empirical models are based on Loening, Durevall and Birru (2009). Although highly tentative, our scenarios show that inflation will...

We examine the effects of the ‘natural resource curse’ on Chad and find little evidence for Dutch disease. Structural vector auto-regression suggests that changes in domestic output and prices are overwhelmingly determined by aggregate demand and supply shocks, and while oil production and...

Tanzania’s Pilot Rural Investment Climate Assessment (RICA) measures the economic environment of non-farm entrepreneurs. The pilot assessment has three key objectives: it aims to better understand the rural non-farm economy in Tanzania, shed light on rural enterprise dynamics and business...

In Ethiopia, changes in the prices of teff, wheat and maize tend to affect more the people at the higher income quintile in rural areas, while in urban areas they tend to affect those at the lower income quintiles. The hike in relative prices from 2006-2007 has increased the urban cost of living...

This paper examines the determinants of economic growth in Guatemala, with a particular focus on schooling. Results based on the error-correction methodology show a better educated labour force has a positive and significant impact on economic growth during 1951-2002. Consistent with micro...

The Rural Investment Climate Assessment (ICA) is one of the first studies of small and informal firms in rural and semi-urban areas in Ethiopia. Little was known about the nature and size distribution of small, rural firms, the constraints they face when trying to expand or even to survive, the...

This paper analyzes characteristics of nonfarm enterprises, their employment growth patterns, and constraints in doing business in rural Tanzania. Using unique survey data, the we describe a low-return sector struggling to compete in a challenging business environment. However, about one-third...

This paper examines the determinants of economic growth in Guatemala, with a particular focus on the schooling level. Results based on an error-correction methodology show a better educated labour force has a positive and significant impact on economic growth. Consistent with micro evidence for...

The Chad Rural Policy Note builds on the findings of a rural sector stocktaking exercise. An initial draft of the note was prepared as a just-in-time study designed to contribute to the preparation of the Chad Interim Strategy Note. This finalized version of the note intended mainly to establish...

The objective of this study is to identify likely factors driving the 2010 rice price hike and suggest options to manage rice price volatility in the future. Regional trade is likely the main proximate cause for high glutinous rice prices. Trade with Vietnam was likely the main reason for...