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Non-positive scaling factor in probability quantification methods: deriving consumer inflation perceptions and expectations in the whole euro area and Ireland

Lyziak, Tomasz - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2011

There are problems with using probability quantification methods when the scaling factor applied in those methods becomes non-positive. The way of adjusting them proposed in this note and verified empirically allows using them in such circumstances. The results for the euro area and Ireland...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011108122

Rationality of business operational forecasts: evidence from Malaysian distributive trade sector

Puah, Chin-Hong; Wong, Shirly Siew-Ling; Habibullah, … - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2012

The underlying nature of forecast optimization makes the rational expectations hypothesis (REH) a framework that is theoretically consistent with the expectations formation produced by economic agents under well-defined assumptions of unbiased forecasts and efficient utilization of available...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011258718

The Effects of Japanese Interventions on FX-Forecast Heterogeneity

Reitz, Stefan; Stadtmann, Georg; Taylor, Mark P. - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2009

This paper investigates the determinants of forecast heterogeneity in the Yen-US dollar market using a panel data set from Consensus Economics. Regardless of the particular model specification and consideration of control variables we find that exchange rate misalignments increase forecast...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005668400

Are oil-price-forecasters finally right? -- Regressive expectations towards more fundamental values of the oil price

Reitz, Stefan; Ruelke, Jan; Stadtmann, Georg - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2009

We use oil price forecasts from the Consensus Economic Forecast poll to analyze how forecaster build their expectations. Our findings point into the direction that the extrapolative as well as the regressive expectation formation hypothesis play a role. Standard measures of forecast accuracy...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005668410

The Role of Capital on Noise Shocks

Amberger, Korie - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2013

An important topic in recent macroeconomic literature is the potential effects of noise, or expectational, shocks on … possibility under a noise shock framework, I incorporate endogenous capital accumulation in a New Keynesian model and solve for … model and that without capital, but inclusion of capital significantly dampens the size of noise shocks: excluding capital …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011110845

Learning, Expectations, and Endogenous Business Cycles

Doshchyn, Artur; Giommetti, Nicola - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2013

agents’ reaction to news about the upcoming monetary interventions, which, moreover, can change over time. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011259238

Demand expectations and the timing of stimulus policies

Guimaraes, Bernardo; Machado, Caio - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2013

This paper proposes a simple macroeconomic model with staggered investment decisions. The expected return from investing depends on demand expectations, which are pinned down by fundamentals and history. Owing to an aggregate demand externality, investment subsidies can improve welfare in this...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011114092

Systemic Stability of Housing and Mortgage Market: From the observable to the unobservable

Xiao, Qin - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2010

Motivated by the revealed preference approach to consumer theory, this study constructs a dynamic theoretical model which infers the unobservable household behavior from the observable patterns of housing and mortgage market activities. The model emphasizes the role of asymmetric responses of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008532152

La quantificazione dei risultati dei sondaggi congiunturali: un confronto tra procedure

D'Elia, Enrico - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 1991

The paper compares different procedures to convert in ordinary quantitative indicators the results of qualitative tendency surveys. The main result is that different procedures tend to produce quantitative indicators with a very similar dynamics. A new quantification method based on the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009418490

Internet search behavior as an economic forecasting tool: The case of inflation expectations

Guzman, Giselle - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2010

This paper proposes a measure of real-time inflation expectations based on metadata, i.e., data about data, constructed from internet search queries performed on the search engine Google. The forecasting performance of the Google Inflation Search Index (GISI) is assessed relative to 37 other...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009647210