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DSGE models for developing economies: an application to Morocco

Lahcen, Mohammed Ait - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2014

In this thesis we try to understand the impact of some macroeconomic features of developing economies, in particular the existence of a large informal sector, on the reaction of these economies to different shocks. In order to achieve this objective, we derive a simple New Keynesian Small Open...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011240203

Examining the Success of the Central Banks in Inflation Targeting Countries: The Dynamics of Inflation Gap and the Institutional Characteristics

Ardakani, Omid; Kishor, N. Kundan - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2014

This paper analyzes the performance of central banks in 27 inflation targeting countries by examining their success in achieving their explicit inflation targets. For this purpose, we decompose the inflation gap, the difference between actual inflation and inflation target, into predictable and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011113487

Is there too much certainty when measuring uncertainty

Silva Filho, Tito Nícias Teixeira da - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2005

This paper criticises the econometric inflation uncertainty proxies found in the literature, which show an overly optimistic picture about our real ability to forecast, and highlights the sharp contrast between the evidence portrayed by that literature and the evidence conveyed by the literature...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005061665

Real Interest Rates, Bubbles and Monetary Policy in the GCC countries

Razzak, Weshah; Bentour, E M - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2009

The Gulf Cooperation Council countries (GCC) include Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Their monetary policy objective is to stabilize the foreign price, i.e., exchange rate instead of the domestic price level, where the nominal interest rate is equalized with the US...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008529275

The case for higher frequency inflation expectations

Guzman, Giselle C. - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2011

I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009650037

European Union Economy System Dynamic Model Development

Skribans, Valerijs - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2012

The formation of the European Union (EU) is the one of the biggest political – economic events of the last 50 years …. The aim of this study is to develop EU economy functioning system dynamic model. Main research method is system dynamics …. General scheme of EU economy system dynamic model is shown. Implementing the model in practice, new EU member economic …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011259562

Relationship between inflation, unemployment and labor force change rate in France: cointegration test

Kitov, Ivan; Kitov, Oleg; Dolinskaya, Svetlana - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2007

A linear and lagged relationship between inflation, unemployment and labor force change rate, π(t)=A0UE(t-t0)+A1dLF(t-t1)/LF(t-t1)+A2 (where A0, A1, and A2 are empirical country-specific coefficients), was found for developed economies. The relationship obtained for France is characterized by...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005835964

Evaluating point and density forecasts of DSGE models

Wolters, Maik Hendrik - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2012

This paper investigates the accuracy of point and density forecasts of four DSGE models for inflation, output growth and the federal funds rate. Model parameters are estimated and forecasts are derived successively from historical U.S. data vintages synchronized with the Fed’s Greenbook...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009422087

Internet search behavior as an economic forecasting tool: The case of inflation expectations

Guzman, Giselle - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2010

This paper proposes a measure of real-time inflation expectations based on metadata, i.e., data about data, constructed from internet search queries performed on the search engine Google. The forecasting performance of the Google Inflation Search Index (GISI) is assessed relative to 37 other...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009647210

An inflation expectations horserace

Guzman, Giselle C. - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2010

For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the Livingston Survey, the Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the Michigan Survey. While these measures have been useful in developing models of forecasting inflation, the data are low frequency...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009647457