The underlying nature of forecast optimization makes the rational expectations hypothesis (REH) a framework that is theoretically consistent with the expectations formation produced by economic agents under well-defined assumptions of unbiased forecasts and efficient utilization of available...

The paper compares different procedures to convert in ordinary quantitative indicators the results of qualitative tendency surveys. The main result is that different procedures tend to produce quantitative indicators with a very similar dynamics. A new quantification method based on the...

The rational expectations hypothesis (REH) serves as an appealing mechanism in forming expectations compared to that of extrapolative or adaptive frameworks because of its consistency with the basic principles of maximizing behavior. This argument is particularly true as the basic idea of REH...

A growing body of literature reports evidence of social interaction effects in survey expectations. In this note, we argue that evidence in favor of social interaction effects should be treated with caution, or could even be spurious. Utilizing a parsimonious stochastic model of expectation...

The circular interplay between demography-employment-productivity-PayGo is investigated for Italy and Italian geographical repartitions. Looking forward to the mid-long run, the paper offers simulations of the burden each effective worker and each active citizen will have to bear to finance via...

The circular interplay between demography-employment-productivity-PayGo is investigated for Europe and Us. Looking forward to the mid-long run, the paper offers simulations of the burden each effective worker and each active citizen will have to bear to finance via pay-as-you-go public health...

The debate on the reform of the pension system in Spain is not very lively, in contrast with the international experience. The Spanish economic boom since the mis nineties, the slowdown in the number of pensioners due to the retirement of the cohorts born during the Civil War, and the...

This paper presents the results of long run labour productivity and GDP growth rate projections (until 2050) for each of the 25 EU Member States and provides a detailed overview of the forecast methodology used. These projections were undertaken in order to provide an internationally comparable...

In this paper I analyse a labour market where the wage is endogenously determined according to an Efficient Bargaining process between a firm and a labour union whose members are partitioned into two social groups: the old and the young. Furthermore, I exploit the Single-Mindedness theory, which...

PURPOSE: This study addresses the impact of late-life paid work on physical and psychological well-being. METHODS: Longitudinal data was drawn from the Health and Retirement Survey and the RAND-HRS data base for more than 6,000 individuals aged 59 to 69 who were working or not-working in the...