In this paper we assess the short-term forecasting power of different time series models in the electricity spot market. We calibrate autoregression (AR) models, including specifications with a fundamental (exogenous) variable - system load, to California Power Exchange (CalPX) system spot...

An important issue in fitting stochastic models to electricity spot prices is the estimation of a component to deal with trends and seasonality in the data. Unfortunately, estimation routines for the long-term and short-term seasonal pattern are usually quite sensitive to extreme observations,...

We test two questions: (i) Is the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) more parsimonious than Akaike Information Criterion (AIC)?, and (ii) Is BIC better than AIC for forecasting purposes? By using simulated data, we provide statistical inference of both hypotheses individually and then jointly...

Provides analysis for a practical action planto implement pro-poor policies through macroeconomic initiatives. The study covers sequencing and implementation issues and provides estimates of both macro and significant microeconomic impacts. The major components of the study are (a) a general...

This paper provides an insight to the time-varying dynamics of the shape of the distribution of financial return series by proposing an exponential weighted moving average model that jointly estimates volatility, skewness and kurtosis over time using a modified form of the Gram-Charlier density...

Country risk and sovereign risk are two of the most important topics in risk management. The first part of this work introduces these concepts and shows the differences between them. The following chapters fit linear and ordinal regression models to a data-set with more than 100 countries, where...

The transition process of the Romanian economy motivated the design of a model that provides for a parsimonious representation of the structure of the economy, exploits the increased availability of data for the system of national accounts, and recognizes time-variant parameters that can result...

The central banks introduce and implement the monetary and financial stabilities policies, going from the accurate estimations of national macro-financial indicators such as the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Analyzing the dependence of the GDP on the time, the central banks accurately estimate...

The study aims to calculate Egypt’s real effective exchange rate at both the bilateral and multilateral levels, estimates the effect of real cross-rate movements on trade in goods and services and on foreign direct investment, and determines the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate for...

An artificial neural network (hence after, ANN) is an information processing paradigm that is inspired by the way biological nervous systems, such as the brain, process information. In previous two decades, ANN applications in economics and finance; for such tasks as pattern reorganization, and...