This paper assesses the information content of two survey indicators for consumption developments in the near future for eight European countries in the period 1985-1998. Empirical work on this topic typically focuses on consumer confidence, the perceptions of buyers of consumption goods. This...

This paper investigates the relationship between bilateral FDI positions and cross-country business cycle correlations in the period 1982–2001. We find that countries that have comparatively intensive FDI relations also have more synchronized business cycles during 1995–2001. Before 1995, we...

This paper examines the effects of private financial (non-FDI) capital inflows in Thailand in the pre-crisis period (1980:I–96:IV). Private capital inflows are found to be associated with higher asset prices, lower lending rates, surges in bank lending and domestic spending driven by higher...

Foreign-owned firms account for a significant part of output in many industrialized countries. However, compared to international trade linkages, relatively little is known about the role of foreign direct investment linkages and multinational firm behavior in the transmission of disturbances...

Using an optimisation-based model with endogenous labour supply and a proportional tax rate, we compare the stabilising properties of different fiscal policy rules. The economy is affected by shocks from both government spending and technology. The fiscal policy rule can be based on government...

The aim of this study is to identify the extent to which the GCC countries can adopt similar economic policies by the time of the formation of the GCC unified currency in 2010. Among many other convergence standards, the study suggests to examine the economic structure of the GCC countries to...

We analyze the microfoundations for Keynesian aggregate demand effects by considering the link between aggregate demand and firm production decisions under monopolistic competition. Macroeconomic equilibrium is characterized in a simple graphical framework that facilitates comparison of several...

In this paper, we present an alternative approach to inflation and inflation measurement based on Menger’s theory of inner exchange value of money and on the stochastic approach to index numbers. We briefly describe the characteristics of the sample cross-section distribution of price changes....

Recent empirical results about the US term structure are difficult to reconcile with the classical hypothesis of rational expectations even if time-varying but stationary term premia are allowed for. A hypothesis of rational learning about the conditional variance of the log pricing kernel is...

This paper analyzes qualitatively and quantitatively the e ects of declining mortality rates on fertility, education and economic growth. The analysis demonstrates that if individuals are prudent in the face of uncertainty about child survival, a decline in an exogenous mortality rate reduces...