Not so much and we should not, at least not yet.

This paper gauges the causal relationship between external and budget deficits by using Blanchard's overlapping generations model. This model sests the twin deficits hypothesis (i.e. there is a positive relationship between the deficits) and the Ricardian equivalence hypothesis (i.e. there is no...

The study examines the reasons for financial crises in 31 emerging market countries during 1980-2001. It estimates a probit model using 23 macroeconomic and financial sector variables. Traditional variables such as unemployment and inflation, as well as several indicators of indebtedness such as...

The paper reviews the recent conduct of monetary policy and the central bank’s rule-based behavior in Russia. Using different policy rules, we test whether the central bank in Russia reacts to changes in inflation, output gap and the exchange rate in a consistent and predictable manner. Our...

This paper examines the trade-off between exchange rate stability and monetary autonomy for a target zone. Using the guilder-mark target zone in the pre-EMU period as a case study, we empirically estimate how much policy discretion the Dutch central bank still enjoyed and how much had been ceded...

This paper re-examines the behavioral responses of key macroeconomic variables in Canada to exogenous shocks to the relative price of investment goods. It does so by developing a stylized two-sector real business cycle model which is simulated to explore its ability to shed new light on the...

Business cycle statistics differ widely across countries, especially for trade-related variables. Part of these variations relates to the size of the economies and to their distance from each other. This paper asks whether a three-country model is able to display the marked diversity of business...

This paper tests the stability of the U.S. federal intertemporal budget constraint over the postwar period. The implied equilibrium budget path is estimated and used to determine which component of the budget has greater responsibility for the recent intertemporal violations.