The EU accession countries have made remarkable progress in developing their financial sectors. Nevertheless, potential risks to banking sector stability remain. We take stock of these risks, with a focus on the challenges posed by the EU accession process. Important potential risks we identify...

This paper proposes a new monetary policy framework for effectively navigating the path to adopting the euro. The proposed policy is based on relative inflation forecast targeting and incorporates an ancillary target of declining exchange rate risk, which is suggested as a key criterion for...

This study proposes the adoption of money growth rules as indicator variables of monetary policies by the countries converging to a common currency system, in particular, by the eurozone candidate countries. The analytical framework assumes an inflation target as the ultimate policy goal. The...

We place regional industry structures at centre stage in currency union analysis, decomposing differences between regional and aggregate cycles into 'industry structure' and 'industry cycle' effects. The industry structure effect indicates whether a region's industry structure causes its cycle...

If two countries experience similar cycles, loss in monetary sovereignty following currency union may not be severe. Analysis of cyclical similarity is frequently carried out at the overall industry level, then interpreted with reference to regional industrial structures. By contrast, this paper...

This paper investigates whether monetary policy has asymmetric effects on stock returns using Markov-switching models. Different measures of the stance of monetary policy are adopted. Empirical evidence from monthly returns on the standard & Poor 500 (S&P 500) price index suggests that monetary...

This paper analyses the relationship between monetary policy and asset prices using a structural rational expectations model that allows for the effect of asset prices on aggregate demand. We assume that asset prices follow a partial adjustment mechanism whereas they are positively affected by...

The Fed closely monitors the stock market and the stock market continuously forms expectations about the Fed decisions. What does this imply for the relation between the fed funds rate and the S&P500? We find that the answer depends on the conditions prevailing on the financial market. During...

Using Minsky (1986), this paper attempts to answer two questions: (1) How does policy affect real and nominal variables? and (2) How should monetary policy be conducted so as to improve the performance of the economy? Minsky asserted that rising interest rates, brought about by contractionary...

This paper asks to what extent the market prices in the future monetary policy decisions of the Czech National Bank (CNB), how this policy predictability has evolved over time, and whether the change in the central bank’s forecasting methodology in mid-2002 had any impact. Using a sample up to...