Once they have observed information, hindsight-biased agents fail to remember how ignorant they were initially; "they knew it all along." We formulate a theoretical model of this bias, providing a foundation for empirical measures and implying that hindsight-biased agents learning about...

A popular model of new product diffusion is applied in an international setting. Several limitations on its use are noted: instability with limited data, environmental differences, and systematic under reporting of estimated time to attain peak level of first purchase sales.

A model that addresses the problem of selecting test units for test marketing is described. The model is based on Bayesian procedures and utilizes data on the relationships between test unit sales and equilibrium market performance. An illustrative application incorporates the use of historical...

We integrate a case-based model of probability judgment with prospect theory to explore asset pricing under uncertainty. Research within the "heuristics and biases" tradition suggests that probability judgments respond primarily to case-specific evidence and disregard aggregate characteristics...