This paper presents an axiomatic approach to the problem of aggregating expert assessments of an event's probability into some group probability assessment. A multiplicative formula is derived.

This Note considers the problem of aggregating individual probability estimates of an event to obtain a group estimate. Norman Dalkey has argued that no rigorous theory of probability aggregation is possible for the following reasons: (1) There is no consistent way of aggregating individual...

Savage's axioms show the rationality of maximizing expected utility when all uncertainties are explicitly modelled. But individuals actually make decisions in bounded contexts called small worlds. Savage's axioms do not imply the optimality of maximizing expected utility in small worlds unless...

The additive utility formula developed by Harsanyi specifies how a rational ethical individual acting on behalf of other people ought to behave. Unfortunately the formula is not invariant to arbitrary utility transformations and hence requires interpersonal comparisons of utility. Many...