Several theories suggest that people replace probabilities by decision weights when evaluating risky outcomes. This paper proposes a model, called venture theory, of how people assess decision weights. It is assumed that people first anchor on a stated probability and then adjust this by...

The typical statistical cost control model determines when a cost deviation is significant, but does not determine the optimum search procedure for restoring the process to a state of control. This search procedure is important because any given cost deviation may be the result of a number of...

Network scheduling activities are usually addressed in a two-stage process of static schedule determination and subsequent control monitoring. A more complete view combines these two subsets of decisions with information acquisition decisions into a dynamic optimization framework. Such a...

Traditional standard cost variance analysis procedures are examined as motivational devices in a principal-agent model. The reexpressing of a cost realization into components (such as individual factor price and quantity variances) is shown to be useful if an incentive problem exists and if the...

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Given the difficulties people experience in making trade-offs, what are the consequences of using simple models that avoid trade-offs? We examine choices by such models in environments where "true" preferences are linear and attributes are characterized by binary attributes. A deterministic...

On p. 673, we stated that we had been refused permission to replicate our study using the Markstrat game (Hogarth & Makridakis [Hogarth, R. M., S. Makridakis. 1981. The value of decision making in a complex environment: an experimental approach. Management Sci. 27(1) 93--107.]) and questioned...

Are the costs of time and effort spent on analyzing decisions outweighed by benefits? This issue was examined in the context of a competitive business game where human teams were pitted against two kinds of simple-minded arbitrary decision rules: one where rules were applied consistently...

The formal practice of forecasting and planning (F&P) has risen to prominence within a few decades and now receives considerable attention from both academics and practitioners. This paper explicitly recognizes the nature of F&P as future-oriented decision making activities and, as such, their...

By focussing on issues concerning precise relative performance of the human and experimental teams, Ross obscures the major, and a priori surprising result of our study. This is that the experimental teams were not all dominated by the human teams. Replication is the appropriate way to...