The one-switch property states that the preference between any two lotteries switches at most once as wealth increases. Working within the expected utility framework, we extend the one-switch notion to the multiattribute case and identify the families of multiattribute utility functions that are...

When two forecasters agree regarding the probability of an uncertain event, should a decision maker adopt that probability as his or her own? A decision maker who does so is said to act in accord with the unanimity principle. We examine a variety of Bayesian consensus models with respect to...

Incentive plans are an integral part of management control since incentives as measures of recognition of performance are significant motivating factors for corporate executives. In this paper we describe how such incentive plans can be devised. We employ multiattribute preference theory in the...

Inferences or decisions in the face of uncertainty should be based on all available information. Thus, when probability distributions for an uncertain quantity are obtained from experts, models, or other information sources, these distributions should be combined to form a single consensus...

"`But we can't agree whether A or B is correct,' he concluded, `and so we're collecting expert opinions, weighting them appropriately, and programming WESCAC to arbitrate the whole question.'" (John Barth, Giles Goat-Boy, p. 664.) In the Bayesian framework, quantified judgments about uncertainty...

Personal, or subjective, probabilities are used as inputs to many inferential and decision-making models, and various procedures have been developed for the elicitation of such probabilities. Included among these elicitation procedures are scoring rules, which involve the computation of a score...

Probability forecasters who are rewarded via a proper scoring rule may care not only about the score, but also about their performance relative to other forecasters. We model this type of preference and show that a competitive forecaster who wants to do better than another forecaster typically...

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Constructing decision- and risk-analysis probability models often requires measures of dependence among variables. Although data are sometimes available to estimate such measures, in many applications they must be obtained by means of subjective judgment by experts. We discuss two experimental...

An alternative to using a single forecasting method is to average the forecasts obtained from several methods. In this paper we investigate empirically the impact of the number and choice of forecasting methods on the accuracy of simple averages. It is concluded that the forecasting accuracy...