A vast literature shows that individuals frequently violate normative principles in reasoning. In this paper, we report the results of four studies designed to determine if information dissemination in competitive auctions can reduce, or even eliminate, logical errors in the Wason selection...

This study investigates the quality of direct probability judgments and quantile estimates with a focus on calibration and consistency. The two response modes use different measures of miscalibration, so it is difficult to directly compare their relative (in)accuracy. We employed a more refined...

Despite the common reliance on numerical probability estimates in decision research and decision analysis, there is considerable interest in the use of verbal probability expressions to communicate opinion. A method is proposed for obtaining and quantitatively evaluating verbal judgments in...

In order to review the empirical literature on subjective probability encoding from a psychological and psychometric perspective, it is first suggested that the usual encoding techniques can be regarded as instances of the general methods used to scale psychological variables. It is then shown...

Vagueness attitudes have been used to explain anomalies and irregularities in investment behavior. It is generally assumed (Ellsberg 1961) that decision makers (DMs) dislike vagueness, but this assumption has been challenged by empirical results documenting systematic alternative attitudes to...

We present a new method for constructing joint probability distributions of continuous random variables using isoprobability contours--sets of points with the same joint cumulative probability. This approach reduces the joint probability assessment into a one-dimensional cumulative probability...

People often observe others' decisions before deciding themselves. Using eBay data for DVD auctions we explore the consequences of neglecting nonsalient information when making such inferences. We show that bidders herd into auctions with more existing bids, even if these are a signal of...

Many of the options available to decision makers, such as college majors and romantic partners, can become unavailable if sufficient effort is not invested in them (taking classes, sending flowers). The question asked in this work is whether a threat of disappearance changes the way people value...

Preferences inferred from choice are more likely to favor the alternative that is superior with respect to the prominent (most important or salient) attribute than are preferences inferred from matching (direct tradeoff) judgments. This prominence effect violates standard models of rational...