We propose a new procedure for providing confidence-interval estimators of the mean of a covariance-stationary process. The procedure, a modification of the method of batch means, is an improvement over existing methods when the process displays strong correlation and a comparatively small...

An event takes place at time t, a discrete random variable with known probability function. At unit intervals of time, a measurement x is observed which yields information about the event; x is a random variable, with a known probability density function being dependent upon whether or not the...

We address an assembly problem, motivated by flat panel display manufacturing, where the quality (or performance) of the final product depends upon characteristics of the components to be assembled, which are not constant from component to component. We analyze the tradeoff between the increase...

A new structure for economically-based sequential inspection plans is developed for use in motor vehicle emission testing. The structure allows for multiple attributes, multiple sources of randomness, misclassification of inspected items, and adjustment of cost parameters to produce desirable...

This paper presents an axiomatic approach to the problem of aggregating expert assessments of an event's probability into some group probability assessment. A multiplicative formula is derived.

This Note considers the problem of aggregating individual probability estimates of an event to obtain a group estimate. Norman Dalkey has argued that no rigorous theory of probability aggregation is possible for the following reasons: (1) There is no consistent way of aggregating individual...

Savage's axioms show the rationality of maximizing expected utility when all uncertainties are explicitly modelled. But individuals actually make decisions in bounded contexts called small worlds. Savage's axioms do not imply the optimality of maximizing expected utility in small worlds unless...

The additive utility formula developed by Harsanyi specifies how a rational ethical individual acting on behalf of other people ought to behave. Unfortunately the formula is not invariant to arbitrary utility transformations and hence requires interpersonal comparisons of utility. Many...