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Demand Forecasting Behavior: System Neglect and Change Detection

Kremer, Mirko; Moritz, Brent; Siemsen, Enno - In: Management Science 57 (2011) 10, pp. 1827-1843

that forecasting behavior systematically deviates from normative predictions: Forecasters overreact to forecast errors in …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010990449

A Case-Based Model of Probability and Pricing Judgments: Biases in Buying and Selling Uncertainty

Brenner, Lyle A.; Griffin, Dale W.; Koehler, Derek J. - In: Management Science 58 (2012) 1, pp. 159-178

We integrate a case-based model of probability judgment with prospect theory to explore asset pricing under uncertainty. Research within the "heuristics and biases" tradition suggests that probability judgments respond primarily to case-specific evidence and disregard aggregate characteristics...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010990558

Note---Sliding Simulation: A New Approach to Time Series Forecasting

Makridakis, Spyros - In: Management Science 36 (1990) 4, pp. 505-512

This paper proposes a new approach to time series forecasting based upon three premises. First, a model is selected not … forecasting horizon separately, making it possible to have different models/methods to predict each of the m horizons. This …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009191229

Does a Manufacturer Benefit from Selling to a Better-Forecasting Retailer?

Taylor, Terry A.; Xiao, Wenqiang - In: Management Science 56 (2010) 9, pp. 1584-1598

-forecast information. We show that the manufacturer's expected profit is convex in the retailer's forecasting accuracy: The manufacturer … benefits from selling to a better-forecasting retailer if and only if the retailer is already a good forecaster. If the … retailer has poor forecasting capabilities, then the manufacturer is hurt as the retailer's forecasting capability improves …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009191698

Effective Scoring Rules for Probabilistic Forecasts

Friedman, Daniel - In: Management Science 29 (1983) 4, pp. 447-454

forecasting) are also provided. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009191885

From Story Line to Box Office: A New Approach for Green-Lighting Movie Scripts

Eliashberg, Jehoshua; Hui, Sam K.; Zhang, Z. John - In: Management Science 53 (2007) 6, pp. 881-893

Movie studios often have to choose among thousands of scripts to decide which ones to turn into movies. Despite the huge amount of money at stake, this process--known as green-lighting in the movie industry--is largely a guesswork based on experts' experience and intuitions. In this paper, we...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009197428

Which GARCH Model for Option Valuation?

Christoffersen, Peter; Jacobs, Kris - In: Management Science 50 (2004) 9, pp. 1204-1221

Characterizing asset return dynamics using volatility models is an important part of empirical finance. The existing literature on GARCH models favors some rather complex volatility specifications whose relative performance is usually assessed through their likelihood based on a time series of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009197435

Incentives for Retailer Forecasting: Rebates vs. Returns

Taylor, Terry A.; Xiao, Wenqiang - In: Management Science 55 (2009) 10, pp. 1654-1669

information by exerting costly forecasting effort. In such a setting, contracts play two roles: providing incentives to influence … the retailer's forecasting decision and eliciting information obtained by forecasting to inform production decisions. We … rebates, the retailer, manufacturer, and total system may benefit from the retailer having inferior forecasting technology …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009197666

Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts: A Cognitive Perspective on Risk Taking

Kahneman, Daniel; Lovallo, Dan - In: Management Science 39 (1993) 1, pp. 17-31

Decision makers have a strong tendency to consider problems as unique. They isolate the current choice from future opportunities and neglect the statistics of the past in evaluating current plans. Overly cautious attitudes to risk result from a failure to appreciate the effects of statistical...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009197674

Metrics--When and Why Nonaveraging Statistics Work

Shugan, Steven M.; Mitra, Debanjan - In: Management Science 55 (2009) 1, pp. 4-15

Good metrics are well-defined formulae (often involving averaging) that transmute multiple measures of raw numerical performance (e.g., dollar sales, referrals, number of customers) to create informative summary statistics (e.g., average share of wallet, average customer tenure). Despite myriad...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009197914