On any given night in Victoria, around 4,000 children and young people live under the care and protection of the State. For many young people, this care extends over a long period of time, sometimes until their 18th birthday. It is well documented that young people leaving State care often lack...

This paper investigates the time caseworkers spend supporting long-term foster care and adoption placements. Undertaken in Australia through collaboration between university and nongovernment agency researchers, the 'Cost of Support Study' tracked the hours that caseworkers spent supporting...

We evaluate the performance of various methods for forecasting tourism demand. The data used include 380 monthly series, 427 quarterly series and 530 yearly series, all supplied to us by tourism bodies or by academics from previous tourism forecasting studies. The forecasting methods implemented...

In this paper we have demonstrated the implications of incorrectly normalising the parameters of a reduced rank regression model to achieve global identification, and presented a method for estimating this model without using the ordering restrictions imposed in previous Bayesian and frequentist...

The analysis of economic time series assumes specific economic behaviour of a representative agent. The data used in analysis is generated by aggregating observations of all individuals in a population. This is valid only if all members of a population have the same data generating process, but...

Age-sex-specific population forecasts are derived through stochastic population renewal using forecasts of mortality, fertility and net migration. Functional data models with time series coefficients are used to model age-specific mortality and fertility rates. As detailed migration data are...

The adding up condition of budget share equations is known to imply restrictions for the autoregresive structure of errors. The implications of these restrictions when estimation is in terms of additive normal errors of additive logistic normal errors is clarified, and a byproduct is a...

This paper provides an empirical analysis of a range of alternative single-factor continuous time models for the Australian short-term interest rate. The models are indexed by the level effect parameter for the volatility in the short rate process. The inferential approach adopted is Bayesian,...

Several studies advocating safety first as a major concern to investors propose downside beta risk as an alternative to the traditional systematic risk-beta. Downside measures are concerned with a subset of the data and therefore the results in the studies that consider the downside beta only...