the other periods. Croston's method is a widely used procedure for intermittent demand forecasting. However, it is an ad …

assumed to be Gaussian, the resulting prediction distribution may have an infinite variance beyond a certain forecasting … approximation causes no serious problems for parameter estimation or for forecasting one or two steps ahead. However, for longer …. The performance of the Gaussian approximation is compared with those of two lognormal models for short-term forecasting …

Institute of Forecasters (Journal of Forecasting 1982-1985; International Journal of Forecasting 1985-2005). During this period …, over one third of all papers published in these journals concerned time series forecasting. We also review highly … influential works on time series forecasting that have been published elsewhere during this period. Enormous progress has been …

varying coefficients and ARMA error correction, is introduced for forecasting complex seasonal time series that cannot be … handled using existing forecasting models. Such complex time series include time series with multiple seasonal periods, high … the assumption of Gaussian errors are derived, leading to a simple, comprehensible approach to forecasting complex …

describe two automatic forecasting algorithms that have been implemented in the forecast package for R. The first is based on … innovations state space models that underly exponential smoothing methods. The second is a step-wise algorithm for forecasting … with ARIMA models. The algorithms are applicable to both seasonal and non-seasonal data, and are compared and illustrated …

We evaluate the performance of various methods for forecasting tourism demand. The data used include 380 monthly series … forecasting studies. The forecasting methods implemented in the competition are univariate time series approaches, and also … econometric models. This forecasting completion differs from previous competitions in several ways: (i) we concentrate only on …

to be forecast. The EIC provides a data-driven model selection tool that can be tuned to the particular forecasting task …'s Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). The comparisons show that for the M3 forecasting competition data, the EIC outperforms …

-term forecasting and also produce sensible long-term forecasts. The forecasts are compared with the official Australian government …

UK pound and US dollar. Its forecasting capacity is compared to other common single- and multi-series approaches in an …