In this paper we study two methodologies which identify and specify canonical form VARMA models. The two methodologies are: (i) an extension of the scalar component methodology which specifies canonical VARMA models by identifying scalar components through canonical correlations analysis and...

In this paper, we argue that there is no compelling reason for restricting the class of multivariate models considered for macroeconomic forecasting to VARs given the recent advances in VARMA modelling methodology and improvements in computing power. To support this claim, we use real...

Nelson and Startz (Econometrica, 58, 1990), Maddala and Jong (Econometrica, 60, 1992) and Wolgrom (Econometrica, 69, 2001) have shown that the density of the two-stage least squares estimator may be bimodal in a just identified structural equation. This paper further investigates the conditions...

It is well known that confidence intervals for weakly identified parameters are unbounded with positive probability (e.g. Dufour, Econometrica 65, pp. 1365-1387 and Staiger and Stock, Econometrica 65, pp. 557-586), and that the asymptotic risk of their estimators is unbounded (Pötscher,...

We examine the response of real exchange rates to shocks in real exchange rate determinants, a monetary policy shock, and a fiscal policy shock in 30 countries over the period 1970-2008. The country set is divided into 4 groups - European, developed-country, Asian developing-country, and non...

This paper establishes vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) models for Malaysian monetary policy analysis by efficiently identifying and simultaneously estimating the model parameters using full information maximum likelihood. The monetary literature is largely dominated by vector...

In this paper we compare two non-stationary time series using non-parametric procedures. Evolutionary spectra are estimated for the two series. Randomization tests are performed on groups of spectral estimates for both related and independent time series. Simul ation studies show that in certain...

This paper develops an EM algorithm for the estimation of a consumer demand system involving variably aggregated data. The methodology is based on the observation that more highly aggregated data does in fact contain information on the finer subcategories. It is therefore possible, under certain...