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Realized volatility of stock returns is often decomposed into two distinct components that are attributed to continuous price variation and jumps. This paper proposes a tobit multivariate factor model for the jumps coupled with a standard multivariate factor model for the continuous sample path...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008467332
In this paper, a Bayesian version of the exponential smoothing method of forecasting is proposed. The approach is based …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005125279
The application of traditional forecasting methods to discrete count data yields forecasts that are non-coherent. That …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005149090
The degree of substitution between private and public per capita consumption for the G7 countries is estimated over the period 1960 to 1996. Special attention is given to isolating both long-run and short-run substitution effects.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005581151
The concept of fractional cointegration, whereby deviations from an equilibrium relationship follow a fractionally integrated process, has attracted some attention of late. The extended concept allows cointegration to be associated with mean reversion in the error, rather than requiring the more...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005149058
decomposing, smoothing and forecasting two-dimensional sparse data. In some ways, ROPES is similar to Ridge Regression, the LASSO … practical method of forecasting mortality rates, as well as a new method for interpolating and extrapolating sparse longitudinal …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010958945
to be forecast. The EIC provides a data-driven model selection tool that can be tuned to the particular forecasting task …'s Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). The comparisons show that for the M3 forecasting competition data, the EIC outperforms …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005427642
The local linear trend and global linear trend models embody extreme assumptions about trends. According to the local linear trend formulation the level and growth rate are allowed to rapidly adapt to changes in the data path. On the other hand, the Glaobal linear trend model makes no allowance...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005149074
Influence diagnostics have become an important tool for statistical analysis since the seminal work by Cook (1986). In this paper we present a curvature-based diagnostic to access local influence of minor perturbations on the modified likelihood displacement in a regression model. Using the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005427627
This paper develops a new methodology for identifying the structure of VARMA time series models. The analysis proceeds by examining the echelon canonical form and presents a fully automatic data driven approach to model specification using a new technique to determine the Kronecker invariants. A...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008491360