In this paper, we set out the Japanese Economic Model (JEM), a large-scale macroeconomic model of the Japanese economy. Although the JEM is a theoretical model designed with a view to overcoming the Lucas ( 1976) critique of traditional large-scale macroeconomic models, it can also be used for...

Focusing on policymaking under uncertainty, we analyze the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) in the early 1990s, when the bubble economy collapsed. Conducting stochastic simulations with a large- scale macroeconomic model of the Japanese economy, we find that the BOJf s monetary policy...

Typically, when conducting econometric forecasting, estimation is carried out on a forecasting model that is built upon some assumed economic structure. However, such techniques cannot avoid running into the possibility of misspecification, which will occur should there be some error in the...

Japan is facing severe fiscal challenges. The aging of the population is projected to raise total pension and health expenditures. There is already a huge debt to output ratio, which is the highest among the advanced economies. In this paper we ask, gIf the consumption tax rate is raised to 15...