The decomposition of a given time series into trend, seasonal component, and irregular component is formulated as a minimization problem. The trend is chosen such that it is as smooth as possible; the seasonal component is chosen such that it exhibits a seasonal pattern as stable as possible; and...

Marshall's notion of the representative firm can be read as a macro notion with some resemblance to Keynes' aggregative concepts. Keynes' notions of aggregate demand and aggregate supply are fashioned after Marshall's definitions of demand and supply. Keynes starts with the Marshallian...

The aim of this paper is to develop a model-based seasonal adjustment method which will yield the same decomposition formulas as the descriptive seasonal adjustment procedures proposed in Schlicht/Pauly (1984) and Schlicht (1981). Hence the duality between the descriptive and the model-based...

Although it is not possible, in general, to give a macro description of a micro model over the entire state space of the micro model, it is possible to aggregate exactly over a subspace. The set of micro states where aggregation is possible forms the aggregation set. The paper considers the...

The seasonal adjustment method proposed by Schlicht (1981) can be viewed as a method that minimizes non-stochastic deviations (perturbations). This interpretation gives rise to a critique of the seasonality criterion used there. A new seasonality criterion is proposed that avoids these...

The paper discusses a new seasonality hypothesis which is one part of a weighted regression approach for the decomposition of a time series into a trend, a seasonal component and an irregular component. It is shown that there exists a regression formulation leading, as in the descriptive...