This paper considers the importance of dynamic complementarities as an endogenous source of propagation in a dynamic stochastic economy. Dynamic complementarities link the stocks of human and organizational capital, which are influenced by past levels of economic activity, to current levels of...

A major unresolved issue in business cycle theory is the construction of an endogenous propagation mechanism capable of capturing the amount of persistence displayed in the data. In this paper we explore the quantitative implications of one propagation mechanism: learning by doing. Estimation of...

This paper uses a lifecycle model to study household finance in China, focusing on the high savings rate, the low stock market participation rate and the low share of stocks in wealth. We control for important regime changes in China in the estimation of structural parameters, and examine their...

We study the employment and output effects of the short-time work (STW) policy in Germany between 2009 and 2010. This intervention facilitated reductions in hours worked per employee with the goal of preventing layoffs. Using confidential German micro-level data we estimate a search model with...

This paper studies the implications of household financial choices for the effects of monetary policy on consumption. Based on data from four major euro area countries, the paper estimates the key structural parameters using a simulated method of moments approach to match moments related to...

This paper explores the gains to monetary union. We consider a two-country overlapping generations model. Agents work when young and have random tastes over the composition (domestic vs. foreign goods) of old age consumption. In equilibrium, governments require that local currency be used for...

This paper studies the effects of subsidies on durable goods markets. In particular, we study a recent policy in France in which the governments of Balladur and Jupp‚ subsidized the replacement of old cars with new ones. To study this policy, we construct a dynamic stochastic discrete choice...

This paper provides empirical evidence on macroeconomic complementarities, a restriction on the nature of interaction between individuals in a multi-agent setting. These models imply that activities across agents will be positively correlated, that discrete decisions will be synchronized and...

This paper studies quantitative implications of model economies that exhibit multiple equilibria. The goal is to assess two interrelated issues. First, do economies with multiple equilibria have falsifiable predictions? Second, is identification possible in economies that exhibit multiple...

The valuation of government debt is subject to strategic uncertainty, stemming from investors' sentiments. Pessimistic lenders, fearing default, bid down the price of debt. This leaves a government with a higher debt burden, increasing the likelihood of default and thus confirming the pessimism...