States, Canada, Germany, and several other OECD countries during and after the Great Recession of 2008-09. Unemployment rates … increased moderately in Canada. More recent data also show that, unlike Germany and Canada, the U.S. unemployment rate remains … did not change substantially in Germany, increased and remained at relatively high levels in the United States, and …

Market participants' forecasts of future exchange rate volatility can be recovered from option contracts on foreign … currencies. Such implicit volatility forecasts for four currencies are used to test rational expectations jointly with the … version of market rationality: the market can correctly forecast the direction of the change in exchange rate volatility. This …

forecasting of daily and lower frequency volatility and return distributions. Most procedures for modeling and forecasting … ARCH or stochastic volatility models, which often perform poorly at intraday frequencies. Use of realized volatility … variation, we formally develop the links between the conditional covariancematrix and the concept of realized volatility. Next …

recovered but unemployment lingered). This paper presents a model that captures these three facts. The key elements of the model …

Equilibrium labor market theory suggests that unemployment benefit extensions affect unemployment by impacting both job … vacancy creation, employment, and a rise in unemployment …

We revisit the hypothesis that cyclical fluctuations in unemployment are caused by shocks to the discount rate. We use … in the EU rate. The response of the unemployment rate is minuscule. These findings are at odds with the actual behavior … large unemployment fluctuations. We show that aggregate productivity shocks generate the correct comovement between the UE …

is procyclical and volatile over the business cycle. The estimated cyclicality implies far less unemployment volatility …The flow opportunity cost of moving from unemployment to employment consists of foregone public benefits and the …