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Comparing the Point Predictions and Subjective Probability Distributions of Professional Forecasters

Engelberg, Joseph - 2010

We use data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters to compare point forecasts of GDP growth and inflation with the subjective probability distributions held by forecasters. We find that SPF forecasters summarize their underlying distributions in different ways and that their summaries tend...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012761765

Expanded GDP for Welfare Measurement in the 21st Century

Hulten, Charles R.; Nakamura, Leonard Isamu - 2022

this paper, we use this framework to provide a detailed critique of existing GDP and price measurement procedures and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014102644

Quality Improvement in Health Care : a Framework for Price and Output Measurement

Shapiro, Irving; Shapiro, Matthew D.; Wilcox, David W. - 2021

how this framework might be used to improve measurement of health care prices and output …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013218900

Estimating Real Production and Expenditures Across Nations : A Proposal for Improving the Penn World Tables

Feenstra, Robert C.; Heston, Alan W.; Timmer, Marcel; … - 2021

In this paper we propose a new approach to international comparisons of real GDP measured from the output-side. The traditional Geary-Khamis system to measure real GDP from the expenditure-side is modified to include differences in the terms of trade between countries. It is shown that this...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013240994

Measuring Economic Growth from Outer Space

Henderson, J. Vernon - 2010

growth to augment existing income growth measures, under the assumption that measurement error in using observed light as an … indicator of income is uncorrelated with measurement error in national income accounts. For countries with good national income … official data. Lights data also allow for measurement of income growth in sub- and supranational regions. As an application, we …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013151806

Improving GDP Measurement : A Measurement-Error Perspective

Aruoba, S. Borağan - 2013

We provide a new and superior measure of U.S. GDP, obtained by applying optimal signal-extraction techniques to the (noisy) expenditure-side and income-side estimates. Its properties - particularly as regards serial correlation - differ markedly from those of the standard expenditure-side...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013083397

Shining a Light on Purchasing Power Parities

Pinkovskiy, Maxim - 2018

Nighttime lights data are a measure of economic activity whose error is plausibly independent of the measurement errors …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012924462

Who Shrunk China? Puzzles in the Measurement of Real GDP

Feenstra, Robert C. - 2012

The latest World Bank estimates of real GDP per capita for China are significantly lower than previous ones. We review possible sources of this puzzle and conclude that it reflects a combination of factors, including substitution bias in consumption, reliance on urban prices which we estimate...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013112848

Measuring Openness to Trade

Waugh, Michael E. - 2016

In this paper we derive a new measure of openness—trade potential index—that quantifies potential gains from trade as a simple function of data. Using a standard multicountry trade model, we measure openness by a country's potential welfare gain from moving to a world with frictionless...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012994894

A General-Equilibrium Asset-Pricing Approach to the Measurement of Nominal and Real Bank Output

Wang, J. Christina - 2010

This paper addresses the proper measurement of financial service output that is not priced explicitly. It shows how to … measurement for financial firms, such as: (1) What are the correct quot;reference ratesquot; to use in calculating bank output? In …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012758025