This paper presents evidence on the characteristic speculative dynamics of a wide range of asset returns. It highlights three stylized facts. First, returns tend to be positively serially correlated at high frequency. Second, returns tend to be negatively serially correlated over long horizons....

This paper estimates the fraction of the variance in aggregate stock returns that can be attributed to various kinds of news. First, we consider macroeconomic news and show that it is difficult to explain more than one third of the return variance from this source. Second, to explore the...

This paper summarizes our earlier research documenting the characteristic speculative dynamics of many asset markets and suggests a framework for understanding them. Our model incorporates quot;feedback traders,quot; traders whose demand is based on the history of past returns rather than the...

Financial economists have long favoured the use of a wind-up measure of the firm's pension liabilities. Yet the pension liabilities of the firm also represent the pension wealth of its workers. It is reasonable to presume that workers and shareholders have a common view of the pension contract....

This paper uses data on the abnormal returns earned by the shareholders of Texaco and Pennzoil to examine whether resources were quot;lostquot; in the course of the litigation. We find that the leakage involved in the forced transfer is enormous: each dollar of value lost by Texaco's...

This paper develops a procedure for adjusting the Current Population Survey gross changes data for the effects of reporting errors. The corrected data suggest that the labor market is much less dynamic than has frequently been suggested. Conventional measures sy understate the duration of...

This note explores the sensitivity of the short-run savings effects ofgovernment deficits to assumptions about household planning horizons. Using alifecycle simulation model, we show that even though deficit policies shiftsizable tax burdens to future generations, individuals live long enough to...

This paper examines the potential influence of changing volatility in stock market prices on the level of stock market prices. It demonstrates that volatility is only weakly serially correlated, implying that shocks to volatility do not persist. These shocks can therefore have only a small...

This paper tests several competing hypotheses about the economic effects of dividend taxation. It employs British data on security returns, dividend payout rates, and corporate investment, because unlike the United States, Britain has experienced several major dividend tax reforms in the last...

Taxes on corporate distributions have traditionally been regarded as a quot;double taxquot; on corporate income. This view implies that while the total effective tax rate on corporate source income affects real economic decisions, the distribution of this tax burden between the shareholders and...