A large literature suggests that standard exchange rate models cannot outperform a random walk forecast and that the forward rate is not an optimal predictor of the spot rate. However, there is evidence that the term structure of forward premia contains valuable information for forecasting...

We find evidence of threshold behavior in current account adjustment for the G7 countries, such that the dynamics of adjustment towards equilibrium depend upon whether the current-account/ net-output ratio breaches estimated, country specific current account surplus or deficit thresholds. Both...

While prior to the global financial crisis the empirical international capital flow literature has focused on net capital flows (the current account), since the crisis there has been an increased focus on gross flows. In this paper we jointly analyze global drivers of gross flows (outflows plus...

This paper highlights some of the theoretical and practical implications for monetary policy and exchange rates that derive specifically from the presence of a global general equilibrium factor embedded in neutral real policy rates in open economies. Using a standard two country DSGE model, we...

Gourinchas and Rey (2007) have shown that international financial adjustment (IFA) in the path of expected future returns on a country's international investment portfolio can complement or even substitute for the traditional adjustment channel via a narrowing of country's current account...

This paper develops framework to estimate and interpret the factor content of equilibrium real exchange rates. The framework – which builds on Backus, Foresi, and Telmer (2001) and Ang Piazzesi (2003) – respects the restrictions imposed by stochastic discount factors that generate standard,...

This paper reviews the recent literature on monetary policy rules. We exploit the monetary policy design problem within a simple baseline theoretical framework. We then consider the implications of adding various real world complications. Among other things, we show that the optimal policy...

This paper was prepared as a Keynote Address for the ESRC Conference on the Future of Macroeconomics held at the Bank of England Conference Center on April 14, 2000. It uses the empirical framework for formulating and estimating forward looking monetary policy rules developed in Clarida, Gali,...

Short-term interest rates in the United States have been "too high" since October 1979 in the sense that both unconditional and conditional forecasts, based on an estimated vector autoregression model summarizing the prior experience,under predict short-term interest rates during this period....

This paper investigates the relationship between entry, demand, and dumping in the context of a two country Ricardian model of international trade. Dumping - the export of goods at a price below average cost - can arise in the free trade equilibrium if the two countries differ in their initial...