-world economic settings has been difficult to measure. We estimate the extent of a cognitive bias, confirmatory bias, among experts … regression-discontinuity approach to identify confirmatory bias in this real-world setting. We construct a unique personally … standard deviation in poll points in a given week can be attributed to confirmatory bias. This type of updating suggests that …

which firms slant their reports toward the prior beliefs of their customers in order to build a reputation for quality. Bias … quality when its reports conform to the consumer's prior expectations. We use this fact to build a model of media bias in … emerges in our model even though it can make all market participants worse off. The model predicts that bias will be less …

Experts with reputational concerns, even good ones, are averse to admitting what they don't know. This diminishes our … trust in experts and, in turn, the role of science in society. We model the strategic communication of uncertainty, allowing … equilibrium, our model sheds new light on old results about the challenge of getting experts to admit uncertainty – even when it …

discuss the survey instrument, explain how experts were identified, and present results. I obtain SCC estimates of $200/mt or … higher, but the variation across experts is large. Trimming outliers and focusing on experts who expressed a high degree of …

compare the effect of three motivators: (i) standard incentives; (ii) behavioral factors like present-bias, reference … behavioral experts regarding the effectiveness of the treatments, allowing us to compare results to expectations. We find that (i … compare the results to forecasts by 208 experts. On average, the experts anticipate several key features, like the …

Physicians, acting in their role as experts, are often faced with situations where they must trade off personal and …

combines these methods by using observed decisions by experts to reduce the demensionality of the feature space and allow the … categorization of decisions by their propensity score. The fact that the human capital of experts is heterogeneous implies that …