This paper analyzes saving and capital accumulation in a two-good growth model of two market economies in which economic agents optimize with perfect foresight. The goal is to present a model in which short-run dynamics and the steady-state are soundly integrated. We stress the importance of...

This note describes an algorithm for the solution of rational expectations models with saddlepoint stability properties. The algorithm is based on the method of multiple shooting, which is widely used to solve mathematically similar problems in the physical sciences. Potential applications to...

This paper develops a procedure for adjusting the Current Population Survey gross changes data for the effects of reporting errors. The corrected data suggest that the labor market is much less dynamic than has frequently been suggested. Conventional measures sy understate the duration of...

This paper presents evidence on the characteristic speculative dynamics of a wide range of asset returns. It highlights three stylized facts. First, returns tend to be positively serially correlated at high frequency. Second, returns tend to be negatively serially correlated over long horizons....

This note explores the sensitivity of the short-run savings effects ofgovernment deficits to assumptions about household planning horizons. Using alifecycle simulation model, we show that even though deficit policies shiftsizable tax burdens to future generations, individuals live long enough to...

This paper estimates the fraction of the variance in aggregate stock returns that can be attributed to various kinds of news. First, we consider macroeconomic news and show that it is difficult to explain more than one third of the return variance from this source. Second, to explore the...

This paper examines the potential influence of changing volatility in stock market prices on the level of stock market prices. It demonstrates that volatility is only weakly serially correlated, implying that shocks to volatility do not persist. These shocks can therefore have only a small...

This paper tests several competing hypotheses about the economic effects of dividend taxation. It employs British data on security returns, dividend payout rates, and corporate investment, because unlike the United States, Britain has experienced several major dividend tax reforms in the last...

Taxes on corporate distributions have traditionally been regarded as a quot;double taxquot; on corporate income. This view implies that while the total effective tax rate on corporate source income affects real economic decisions, the distribution of this tax burden between the shareholders and...

This paper summarizes our earlier research documenting the characteristic speculative dynamics of many asset markets and suggests a framework for understanding them. Our model incorporates quot;feedback traders,quot; traders whose demand is based on the history of past returns rather than the...