This paper analyses job seekers' perceptions and their relationship to unemployment outcomes to study heterogeneity and duration dependence in both perceived and actual job finding. Using longitudinal data from two comprehensive surveys, we document that elicited beliefs are (1) strongly...

We develop a tractable quantitative, general equilibrium, oligopsony model of the labor market that we use to measure the macroeconomic implications of labor market power. Strategic interaction complicates inference of parameters that are key to this exercise. To address this challenge, we...

This paper presents new microeconometric evidence on the relevance of nominal contracting for employment determination in the unionized sector. Real wages in long term union contracts contain an unanticipated component that reflects unexpected changes in prices and the degree of indexation....

In this paper a general equilibrium intertemporal model, with optimizing consumers and producers, is developed to analyze how the anticipation of future import tariffs affects real exchange rates and the current account. The model is completely real, and considers a small open economy that...

This paper presents a theory of rigidity, or more properly inertia, in the responses of economic variables to changing environments. The theory rests on three fundamental assumptions: (1) that firms are risk averse, (2) that firms are uncertain of the impacts of changing decision variables and...

Utilizing a model in which individuals search among lotteries on likely success at different jobs, this paper analyzes both the search decision when unemployed and the implications of the sorting process. The model correctly predicts both the direction and convexity of the age-unemployment...

Most models of dynamic labor demand are written in terms of costs of adjusting employment (net adjustment costs). A few are based on the costs of hiring and firing (gross adjustment costs). This study derives several models containing both types of adjustment costs. A dynamic-programming model...

The theory of the dynamics of labor demand is based either on the costs of adjusting the level of employment or on the costs of hiring or firing (of gross changes in employment). We write down a generalized cost of adjustment function that includes both types of cost and allows for asymmetries...

This paper analyzes a sorting model of labor contracts when workers have private information about their own productivities, and firms can test (monitor) workers. We show that sorting considerations alone generate steep wage-tenure profiles, high turnover rates of newly hired workers, and...

In the l93Os, Dunlop and Tarshis observed that the correlation between hours and wages is close to zero. This classic observation has become a litmus test by which macroeconomic models are judged. Existing real business cycle models fail this test dramatically. Based on this result, we argue...