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Globalizing Activities and the Rate of Survival : Panel Data Analysis on Japanese Firms

Kimura, Fukunari; Fujii, Takamune - 2021

This paper conducts a Cox-type survival analysis of Japanese corporate firms using census-coverage data collected by METI. A study of exiting firms confirmed several characteristics of Japanese firms in the 1990s. First, excessive internalization in the corporate structure and activities is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013220825

Heterogeneity and the FDI Versus Export Decision of Japanese Manufacturers

Head, Keith; Ries, John C. - 2021

We investigate whether productivity differences explain why some manufacturers sell only to the domestic market while others serve foreign markets through exports and/or FDI. When overseas production offers no cost advantages, our model predicts that investors should be more productive than...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013310603

Non-Cointegration and Econometric Evaluation of Models of Regional Shift and Share

Brown, Scott James; Engle, Robert F.; Coulson, N. Edward - 2021

This paper tests for cointegration between regional output of an industry and national output of the same industry. An … equilibrium economic theory is presented to argue for the plausibility of cointegration, however, regional economic forecasting … using the shift and share framework often acts as if cointegration does not exist. Data analysis on broad industrial sectors …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013221307

Are Macroeconomic Forecasts Informative? Cointegration Evidence from the Asa-Nber Surveys

Cheung, Yin-Wong; Chinn, Menzie David - 2021

We examine the properties of the ASA-NBER forecasts for several US macroeconomic variables, specifically: (i) are the actual and forecast series integrated of the same order; (ii) are they cointegrated, and; (iii) is the cointegrating vector consistent with long run unitary elasticity of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013224861

Measuring Business Cycles by Saving for a Rainy Day

Crucini, Mario J.; Shintani, Mototsugu - 2021

We propose a simple saving-based measure of the cyclical component in GDP. The measure is motivated by the prediction that the represenative consumer changes savings in response to temporary deviations of income from its stochastic trend, while satisfying a present-value budget constraint. To...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013225022

Estimating Sectoral Cycles Using Cointegration and Common Features

Issler, João Victor; Engle, Robert F. - 2021

output from first principles. Cointegration and common features (cycles) tests are performed and sectoral output data seem to …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013227508

Integration, Cointegration and the Forecast Consistency of Structural Exchange Rate Models

Cheung, Yin-Wong; Chinn, Menzie David - 2021

, according to the Johansen procedure, cointegration fails to hold the farther out the forecasts extend. At the one year ahead …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013236694

A Simple Mle of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems

Stock, James H.; Watson, Mark W. - 2021

An MLE of the unknown parameters of co integrating vectors is presented for systems in which some variables exhibit higher orders of integration, in which there might be deterministic components, and in which the co integrating vector itself might involve variables of differing orders of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013237298

International Capital Mobility in History : The Saving-Investment Relationship

Taylor, Alan M. - 2021

Economic historians have been concerned with the evolution of international capital markets over the long run, but empirical testing of market integration has been limited. This paper augments the literature by investigating long- and short-run criteria for capital mobility using time-series and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013240627

On Low-Frequency Estimates of "Long-Run" Relationships in Macro- Economics

McCallum, Bennett T. - 2021

A number of recent studies have attempted to test propositions concerning "long runt" economic relationships by means of frequency-domain time series techniques that concentrate attention on low frequency co-movements of variables.The present paper emphasizes that many of these propositions...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013243448