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We implement a new approach for the identification of news shocks about future technology. In a VAR featuring a measure … of aggregate technology and several forward-looking variables, we identify the news shock as the shock orthogonal to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013156463
's adjusted TFP data to identify impulse responses to news shocks about future productivity in a structural VAR. The vintage of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012994911
In this paper, we perform a structural Bayesian estimation of the contribution of anticipated shocks to business cycles …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012770680
This paper develops a general theory of aggregation in inefficient economies. We provide non-parametric formulas for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012943616
This paper constructs a general equilibrium model with two types of people where asset price fluctuations are caused by random shocks to the price level that reallocate consumption across generations. In this model, asset prices are volatile, and price-earnings ratios are persistent, even though...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012992653
We examine the hypothesis that the slowdown in productivity following the Great Recession was in significant part an endogenous response to the contraction in demand that induced the downturn. We first present some panel data evidence that technology diffusion is highly cyclical. We then develop...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012998413
preference or more generally a demand shock. More recently two other explanations have been advocated: surprise changes in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013152795
In this paper we present a generalized sticky price model which allows, depending on the parameterization, for demand shocks to maintain strong expansionary effects even in the presence of perfectly flexible prices. The model is constructed to incorporate the standard three-equation New...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012929558
Fluctuations in real GNP have traditionally been viewed as transitory deviations from a deterministic time trend. The purpose of this paper is to review some of the recent developments that have led to a new view of output fluctuations and then to provide some additional evidence. Using post-war...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013312506
According to conventional wisdom, terms of trade shocks represent a major source of business cycles in emerging and poor countries. This view is largely based on the analysis of calibrated business-cycle models. We argue that the view that emerges from empirical SVAR models is strikingly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013021464