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constructed-choice model for general decision making. The model departs from utility theory and prospect theory in its treatment … context on goals, resources, plans and decision rules. The paper concludes by suggesting some prescriptions for improving … individual decision making with respect to protective measures …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012755476
This paper concerns the prescriptive function of decision analysis. I suppose that an agent must choose an action …. Hence, I reason that prescriptions for decision making should respect actuality. That is, they should promote welfare … maximization in the choice problem the agent actually faces. I conclude that any decision rule respecting weak and stochastic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012769876
We present a theory of choice among lotteries in which the decision maker's attention is drawn to (precisely defined …) salient payoffs. This leads the decision maker to a context-dependent representation of lotteries in which true probabilities … are replaced by decision weights distorted in favor of salient payoffs. By endogenizing decision weights as a function of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013038557
This paper focuses on Social Security benefit claiming behavior, a take-up decision that has been ignored in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013221087
Nearly all life-cycle models adopt Yaari's (1965) assumption that individuals know the survival probabilities that they face. Given that an individual's exact survival probabilities are likely unknown, we explore the implications of relaxing this assumption. If there is no annuity market, then...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012950059
Risk and time are intertwined. The present is known while the future is inherently risky. Discounted expected utility provides a simple, coherent structure for analyzing decisions in intertemporal, uncertain environments. However, we document robust violations of discounted expected utility,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013138320
Economic evaluation of climate policy traditionally treats uncertainty by appealing to expected utility theory. Yet our knowledge of the impacts of climate change may not be of sufficient quality to justify probabilistic beliefs. In such circumstances it has been argued that the axioms of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013142547
Vector autoregressions (VARs) are flexible time series models that can capture complex dynamic interrelationships among macroeconomic variables. However, their dense parameterization leads to unstable inference and inaccurate out-of-sample forecasts, particularly for models with many variables....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013099106
explain a set of behavioral anomalies identified across four distinct domains of decision-making: choice under risk, choice …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012858403
The Ellsberg paradox suggests that people behave differently in risky situations -- when they are given objective probabilities -- than in ambiguous situations when they are not told the odds (as is typical in financial markets). Such behavior is inconsistent with subjective expected utility...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013141267