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Cyprus, Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain, ranging from roughly 0.5% (Ireland) to 43% (Greece) of 2011 output during the … recent Eurozone crisis. We propose a model to analyze and understand bailouts in a monetary union, and the large observed … activity, debt-to-gdp ratio, default costs). Our model embeds a ‘Southern view’ of the crisis (transfers did not help) and a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014095819
incentives. We then apply our framework to the European debt crisis. We show that matching the cyclicality of public debt …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012911701
. Calibrated to Eurozone data, the model is consistent with key long-run and debt-crisis statistics. Defaults are rare (1.2 percent …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012910653
The `Excessive Deficit Procedure' of the Maastricht Treaty on Economic and Monetary Union proposes two fiscal convergence conditions for entry and continued membership in the EMU: 1) a country's overall budget deficit for each fiscal year must be equal to or below 3% of GDP, and 2) a country's...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013223574
The recent financial crisis 2007-2009 was the longest and the deepest recession since the Great Depression of 1930. The … crisis that originated in subprime mortgage markets was spread and amplified through globalised financial markets and … insufficient means to halt the spiral of European debt crisis. In particular, no pan-European fiscal mechanism to face a global …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013120322
lending. We test the model in the context of the Eurozone sovereign crisis, which escalated in the second half of 2011 and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013098138
crisis erupted and pushed them into deep recessions, raising their deficits and debt levels. By 2010, they were facing severe …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013072346
We develop a multicountry model in which default in one country triggers default in other countries. Countries are linked to one another by borrowing from and renegotiating with common lenders with concave payoffs. A foreign default increases incentives to default at home because it makes new...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013074284
Europe's debt crisis resembles historical episodes of outright default on domestic public debt about which little …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013075417
IMF forecasts and the EU's Fiscal Compact foresee Europe's heavily indebted countries running primary budget surpluses of as much as 5 percent of GDP for as long as 10 years in order to maintain debt sustainability and bring their debt/GDP ratios down to the Compact's 60 percent target. We show...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013050287