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Uncertainty in both financial markets and the real economy rises sharply during recessions. We develop a model of informational interdependence between financial markets and the real economy, linking uncertainty to information production and aggregate economic activities. We argue that there...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012911472
This paper examines the four most important potential economic crises that the United Stares fared in the 1980s in order to see what lessons can be drawn, individually and collectively, from these experiences: (1) the-developing country debt crisis; (2) the 1907 stork marker crash; (3) failures...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013226931
stance. When decomposing the VIX into two components, a proxy for risk aversion and expected stock market volatility … ("uncertainty"), we find that a lax monetary policy decreases both risk aversion and uncertainty, with the former effect being …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013137030
size in the market. The model offers a partial explanation for the surprisingly low market price of financial risk in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013142931
evidence implies that returns of most anomalies are unexpected, and that mispricing, not risk, is the main driving force of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013144161
In this paper we show that temperature is an aggregate risk factor that adversely affects economic growth. Our argument … temperature (i.e., temperature betas) contains sharp information about the cross-country risk premium; countries closer to the … Equator carry a positive temperature risk premium which decreases as one moves farther away from the Equator. The differences …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013118834
We propose a measure for systemic risk: CoVaR, the value at risk (VaR) of the financial system conditional on … institutions being under distress. We define an institution's contribution to systemic risk as the difference between CoVaR … leverage, size, and maturity mismatch predict systemic risk contribution. We also provide out of sample forecasts of a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013119814
the put spread cannot be attributed to an increase in idiosyncratic risk because the correlation of stock returns … increased during the crisis. The government's collective guarantee partially absorbs financial sector-wide tail risk, which … the bailout guarantee during the crisis. The model solves the problem of how to measure systemic risk in a world where the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013123683
Current practice largely follows restrictive approaches to market risk measurement, such as historical simulation or … produce more accurate risk assessments, treating both portfolio-level and asset-level analysis. Asset-level analysis is … particularly challenging because the demands of real-world risk management in financial institutions - in particular, real …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013106309
We worked with two microlenders to test impacts of randomly assigned reminders for loan repayments in the "text messaging capital of the world". We do not find strong evidence that loss versus gain framing or messaging timing matter. Messages only robustly improve repayment when they include the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013108245