Similar Search Results

The Sources and Nature of Long-Term Memory in the Business Cycle

Haubrich, Joseph Gerard; Lo, Andrew W. - 2021

This paper examines the stochastic properties of aggregate macroeconomic time series from the standpoint of fractionally integrated models, and focuses on the persistence of economic shocks. We develop a simple macroeconomic model that exhibits long-term dependence, a consequence of aggregation...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013218327

Monetary Policy with Model Uncertainty : Distribution Forecast Targeting

Svensson, Lars E. O.; Williams, Noah - 2021

We examine optimal and other monetary policies in a linear-quadratic setup with a relatively general form of model uncertainty, so-called Markov jump-linear-quadratic systems extended to include forward-looking variables. The form of model uncertainty our framework encompasses includes: simple...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013218440

Prices, Wages, and Employment in the U.S. Economy : A Traditional Model and Tests of Some Alternatives

Ando, Albert; Brayton, Flint - 2021

In this paper, we outline the cost minimizing behavior of oligopoly firms and the price adjustment process in the labor market which underlie the traditional formulation of aggregate wage-price behavior in the U.S., and show that resulting equations applied to U.S. data remain stable before and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013221924

The Mckibbin-Sachs Global Model : Theory and Specifications

McKibbin, Warwick J.; Sachs, Jeffrey D. - 2021

This paper presents the theoretical underpinnings of the MSG2 simulation model of the world economy. The MSG2 model is a dynamic general equilibrium model of the world economy which pays particular attention to the relation between stocks and flows and intertemporal constraints. The formation of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013222617

Robustness of Simple Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty

Levin, Andrew T.; Wieland, Volker; Williams, John C. - 2021

In this paper, we investigate the properties of alternative monetary policy rules using four structural macroeconometric models: the Fuhrer-Moore model, Taylor's Multi-Country Model, the MSR model of Orphanides and Wieland, and the FRB staff model. All four models incorporate the assumptions of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013223571

1944, 1963 and 1985 : Modiglianiesque Macro Models

Fischer, Stanley - 2021

In 1944 Franco Modigliani published a famous article summarizing the Keynesian model; in 1963 he extended the 1944 framework. This paper,written for a conference in honor of Modigliani, asks how the earlier papers would be modified in the light of recent developments in macroeconomics. The...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013225843

Policy Analysis with a Multicountry Model

Taylor, John B. - 2021

current international economic structure, internal stability as well as external stability would be greater if Germany, Japan … and the United States oriented their monetary policies toward domestic price stability, or perhaps towards domestic … nominal GNP stability, rather than towards fixing the exchange rates between them. Empirical measures of demand and supply …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013227761

A Model of the Political Economy of the United States

Alesina, Alberto; Londregan, John Benedict; Rosenthal, … - 2021

We develop and test a model of joint determination of the rate of economic growth and the results of presidential and Congressional elections in the United States. In our model, economic agents and voters have rational expectations. Economic policy varies as a function of control of the White...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013227893

The Sources of Disagreement Among International Macro Models and Implications for Policy Coordination

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 2021

This paper makes use of the simulation results of 12 leading large international econometric models, as to the effects of commonly specified changes in monetary and fiscal policy, conducted under the Brookings exercise "Empirical Macroeconomics for Interdependent Economies." The first half of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013234952

Where are We Now? Real-Time Estimates of the Macro Economy

Evans, Martin D. D. - 2021

This paper describes a method for calculating daily real-time estimates of the current state of the U.S. economy. The estimates are computed from data on scheduled U.S. macroeconomic announcements using an econometric model that allows for variable reporting lags, temporal aggregation, and other...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013237033