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regional-level mitigation or adaptation, which reduces disaster risks to capital in the interim. Mitigation depends on belief … regarding the adverse consequences of global warming. Pessimism jumps with a disaster and slowly reverts in the absence of … increasing cyclone frequency. For a typical country exposed to cyclones, a disaster arrival not only damages its capital stock …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013311024
optimal environmental policies. An appropriate model for this policy analysis requires sufficient risk aversion and fattailed …-Zin/Weil preferences, also separates the coefficient of relative risk aversion (important for results on environmental investment) from the … down, are the proportionate effect of environmental investment on the probability of environmental disaster and the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013078588
the distribution for outcomes is fat-tailed. Furthermore, depending on the bound on marginal utility, the index of risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013138396
and forecasting. Building on the theory of continuous-time arbitrage-free price processes and the theory of quadratic … the large covariance matrices relevant in asset pricing, asset allocation and financial risk management applications …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012787458
We propose methods for evaluating density forecasts. We focus primarily on methodsquot; that are applicable regardless of the particular user's loss function. We illustrate the methodsquot; with a detailed simulation example, and then we present an application to density forecasting ofquot;...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012763549
Recent studies have shown that disaster risk can generate asset return moments similar to those observed in the U ….S. data. However, these studies have ignored the cross-country asset pricing implications of the disaster risk model. This … paper shows that standard U.S.-based disaster risk model assumptions found in the literature lead to counterfactual …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012964909
between consumption losses in a disaster and the risk premium, a small amount of risk sharing can significantly attenuate the … effect that disaster risk has on the equity premium. We characterize the sensitivity of risk premium to wealth distribution … lead to significant variation in disaster risk premium. It also highlights the conditions under which disaster risk premium …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013142936
public sector, it may be economically rational for those at risk not to invest in protective measures. Risk management …. These may include multi-year insurance contracts, well-enforced regulations, third-party inspections, and alternative risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013104996
shocks to aggregate uncertainty, I introduce a small, time-varying risk of economic disaster in a standard real business … risk of disaster does not affect the path of macroeconomic aggregates - a "separation theorem" between macroeconomic … probability of disaster leads to a collapse of investment and a recession, an increase in risk spreads, and a decrease in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013150731
A new options-pricing formula applies to far-out-of-the money put options on the overall stock market when disaster … risk is the dominant force, the size distribution of disasters follows a power law, and the economy has a representative … difference between the power-law tail parameter and the coefficient of relative risk aversion, γ. The options-pricing formula …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013001208