This paper considers the uncertainty associated with upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements and the extent to which the market begins to set up for such announcements well before they actually occur. We demonstrate that markets set up well in advance of known announcement...

Large bank holding companies (BHCs) are structured into intricate ownership hierarchies involving hundreds or even thousands of legal entities. Each subsidiary in these hierarchies has its own legal form, assets, liabilities, managerial goals, and supervisory authorities. In the event of BHC...

This paper provides evidence on the unit root hypothesis and long-term growth by allowing for two structural breaks. We reject the unit root hypothesis for three-quarters of the countries approximately 50% more rejections than in models that allow for only one break. While about half of the...

We study the interrelationship between capital flows, returns, dividend yields and world interest rates in 20 emerging markets. We estimate a vector autoregressionn with these variables to measure the degree to which lower interest rates contribute to increased capital flows and shocks in flows...

Empirical analysis often raises questions of approximation to underlying individual behavior. Closer approximation may require more complex statistical specifications, On the other hand, more complex specifications may presume computational facility that is beyond the grasp of most real people...

In most data sets of labor force participation of the elderly, an empirical regularity that emerges is that retirement rates are particularly high at age 65. While there are numerous economic reasons why individuals may choose to retire at 65, empirical models that have attempted to explain the...

This paper considers the role of survey design and question phrasing in evaluating the subjective health assessment responses using the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) dataset. A unique feature of this dataset is that respondents were twice asked during the survey to...

Proposed changes in the U.S. Social Security provisions include increasing the normal retirement age from 65 to 67 and changing from 3% to 8% the increase in benefits for each year that retirement is delayed after normal retirement. The paper considers the interaction between these changes and...

This paper investigates the possibility, raised by Perron (1989, 1990a), that aggregate economic time series can be characterized as being stationary around broken trend lines. Unlike Perron, we treat the break date as unknown a priori. Asymptotic distributions are developed for recursive,...

Recent policy has focused on alleviating poverty among the elderly, with varying degrees of success. Gains to some subsets of the elderly population have come at the expense of others. A component of the policy debate has been identifying factors which might influence labor force participation...