paper begins with a discussion of the positive theory of wage taxation and labor supply under uncertainty. This is followed … simultaneous uncertainty and inequality is discussed. In this part of the paper it is assumed that the government's objective is to …

We review the literature on uncertainty shocks and business cycle research. First, we motivate the study of uncertainty … mechanisms that researchers have postulated to link uncertainty shocks and business cycles. Third, we outline how we can specify … uncertainty shocks. Fourth, we postulate a real business cycle model augmented with financial frictions and uncertainty shocks …

This paper examines the risk aspects of an investment-based defined contribution Social Security plan. We focus on the … risk after the plan is fully phased in. Individuals deposit a fraction of wages to a Personal Retirement Account (PRA … uncertainty, a 5.5 percent log return would permit the benchmark benefits to be purchased with PRA deposits of 3.1 percent of …

response to earnings risk based on Euler equation estimates. To address endogeneity problems, we use Norwegian administrative …

The magnitude of and heterogeneity in systematic earnings risk has important implications for various theories in macro …, labor, and financial economics. Using administrative data, we document how the aggregate risk exposure of individual … earnings to GDP and stock returns varies across gender, age, the worker's earnings level, and industry. Aggregate risk exposure …

Recent studies have shown that disaster risk can generate asset return moments similar to those observed in the U ….S. data. However, these studies have ignored the cross-country asset pricing implications of the disaster risk model. This … paper shows that standard U.S.-based disaster risk model assumptions found in the literature lead to counterfactual …

accounts for the interaction between temperature, economic growth and risk. The model simultaneously matches the projected … temperature path, the observed consumption growth dynamics, discount rates provided by the risk-free rate and equity market … resolution of uncertainty and long-run impact of temperature on growth imply a significant SCC and motivate early actions to …

global macroeconomic fundamental risk. The risk factor is the cross-country high-minus-low conditional skewness of the … unemployment rate gap. It gives a measure of global macroeconomic uncertainty and is robustly priced in currency excess returns. A …

We provide evidence on the relationship between aggregate uncertainty and the macroeconomy. Identifying uncertainty … are robustly followed by contractions, while shocks to forward-looking uncertainty have no significant effect on the … realization of volatility, rather than uncertainty about the future, that has been associated with declines …

Uncertainty appears to have both a short-run and a long-run component, which we measure using firm and macro implied … volatility data from options of 30 days to 10 years duration. We ask what may be driving uncertainty over these different time … horizons, finding that oil price volatility is particularly important for short-run uncertainty, policy uncertainty is …