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This paper develops and illustrates a simple method to generate a DSGE model-based forecast for variables that do not explicitly appear in the model (non-core variables). We use auxiliary regressions that resemble measurement equations in a dynamic factor model to link the non-core variables to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012757579
We present an econometric method for estimating the parameters of a diffusion model from discretely sampled data. The estimator is transparent, adaptive, and inherits the asymptotic properties of the generally unattainable maximum likelihood estimator. We use this method to estimate a new...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013235636
We propose a novel method to estimate dynamic equilibrium models with stochastic volatility. First, we characterize the … exploits the profusion of shocks in stochastic volatility models, is versatile and computationally tractable even in large … methods to estimate a business cycle model of the U.S. economy with both stochastic volatility and parameter drifting in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013100665
with the size of this correlation, and also with the persistence of shocks to volatility. An application to the US stock …. This application also shows that only low frequency shocks to volatility exhibit enough persistence to generate sizable …This paper analyzes optimal portfolio choice and consumption with stochastic volatility in incomplete markets. Using …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012763770
We develop and implement a new method for maximum likelihood estimation in closed-form of stochastic volatility models … unobservable volatility state, to an approximate likelihood procedure where the volatility state is replaced by the implied … volatility of a short dated at-the-money option. We find that the approximation results in a negligible loss of accuracy. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012767654
We compare the out-of-sample forecasting performance of univariate homoskedastic, GARCH, autoregressive and nonparametric models for conditional variances, using five bilateral weekly exchange rates for the dollar, 1973-1989. For a one week horizon, GARCH models tend to make slightly more...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013225431
-sample parameter estimates and pronounced intertemporal volatility persistence. Meanwhile, when judged by standard forecast evaluation …Volatility permeates modern financial theories and decision making processes. As such, accurate measures and good … forecasts of future volatility are critical for the implementation and evaluation of asset pricing theories. In response to this …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012774886
Recent work by Said and Dickey (1984 ,1985) , Phillips (1987), and Phillips and Perron(1988) examines tests for unit roots in the autoregressive part of mixed autoregressive-integrated-moving average (ARIHA) models (tests for stationarity). Monte Carlo experiments show that these unit root tests...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013240352
I translate familiar concepts of discrete-time time-series to contnuous-time equivalent. I cover lag operators, ARMA models, the relation between levels and differences, integration and cointegration, and the Hansen-Sargent prediction formulas
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013104725
The theoretical and empirical econometric literatures on long memory and regime switching have evolved largely independently, as the phenomena appear distinct. We argue, in contrast, that they are intimately related, and we substantiate our claim in several environments, including a simple...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013237958