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Fiscal foresight---the phenomenon that legislative and implementation lags ensure that private agents receive clear signals about the tax rates they face in the future---is intrinsic to the tax policy process. This paper develops an analytical framework to study the econometric implications of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012771825
reduction strategies and traditional econometrics approaches in fore-cast accuracy, there are further significant gains from … forecast accuracy in commercial applications. To assess if the hype is warranted, we use data from the film industry in … strategies that combine econometrics and machine learning when conducting forecasts with new big data sources. Specifically …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012916165
Algorithms are increasingly used to aid, or in some cases supplant, human decision-making, particularly for decisions that hinge on predictions. As a result, two additional features in addition to prediction quality have generated interest: (i) to facilitate human interaction and understanding...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012870057
evidence that the forecast of the Markov model are superior at predicting the direction of change of the exchange rate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014157583
Across a variety of asset classes, we show that relative returns are highly predictable in the time series in and out of sample, much more so than aggregate returns. For Treasuries, slope is more predictable than level. For equities, dominant principal components of anomaly long-short strategies...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012946505
Although macroeconomic forecasting forms an integral part of the policymaking process, there has been a serious lack of … inflation. This paper fills this research gap by providing a replicable forecasting model that beats a host of other competing … models when measured by root mean square errors, especially over long-run forecast horizons. The model is shown to be capable …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012987123
premium. We use this simple observation to forecast the equity-premium time series with the cross-sectional price of risk. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013224370
We investigate the properties of exchange rate forecasts with a data set encompassing a broad cross section of currencies. The key finding is that expectations appear to be biased in our sample. This result is robust to the possibility of random measurement error in the survey measures....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013226080
forecasting the course of the U. S.economy (mostly economists, analysts, and executives from the world of corporate business and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013227225
Some previous analyses have suggested that the smoothing of tax rates over time would be a desirable guide for public debt management. One implication of this viewpoint is that future changes in tax rates would be unpredictable based on current information. This proposition is tested by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013236721