volatility leading to large output and economic growth costs, especially in poor countries. In these circumstances, good times do … modules: (i) the basics of volatility and its impact on growth and poverty; (ii) managing volatility along thematic lines …

owes to the protracted nature of recovery. On average, it takes about eight years to reach the pre-crisis level of income …; the median is about 6 1⁄2 years. Five to six years after the onset of crisis, only Germany and the US (out of 12 systemic …

This paper proposes a methodology for measuring credit booms and uses it to identify credit booms in emerging and … regularities of credit booms in macroeconomic aggregates and micro-level data. Macro data show a systematic relationship between … credit booms and economic expansions, rising asset prices, real appreciations, widening external deficits and managed …

Although a credit tightening is commonly recognized as a key determinant of the Great Recession, to date, it is unclear … whether a worsening of credit conditions faced by households or by firms was most responsible for the downturn. Some studies … have suggested that the household-side credit channel is quantitatively the most important one. Many others contend that …

statistical model shows that household leverage growth and dependence on credit card borrowing as of 2006 explain a large fraction … official beginning of the recession in the fourth quarter of 2007. Similarly, counties with the highest reliance on credit card … borrowing reduced durable consumption by significantly more following the financial crisis of the fall of 2008. Overall, our …

aggregate data. Changes in household credit limits explain 40% of the differential rise and fall of employment across states … gradual, credit shocks greatly slowed the recovery …

are usually preceded by credit booms. Second, credit booms often do not result in a crisis. That is, there are "good … policy weighs the benefits of preventing a crisis against the costs of stopping a good boom. We show that countercyclical …

effects of the twenty-first century's first global crisis. A discrete-choice panel analysis using 1973-2010 data suggests that … domestic credit expansion and real currency appreciation have been the most robust and significant predictors of financial … reserves predict a sharply reduced probability of a subsequent crisis …

in the recent literature on financial crises: international capital movements and credit growth. Neither factor is … to better growth performance but may also have created greater volatility via financial crises. I first document the …