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In this paper we examine temporal properties of eleven natural resource real price series from 1870-1990 by employing a Lagrangian Multiplier unit root test that allows for two endogenously determined structural breaks with and without a quadratic trend. Contrary to previous research, we find...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013227016
an increase in the level and volatility of spot prices. We construct a large panel data set which includes commodities …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012948088
that, in the presence of a binding RFS, the inherent volatility in the US coarse grains market will rise by about one …-quarter. And the volatility of the US coarse grains price to supply side shocks in that market will rise by nearly one-half. Under … binding blend wall, we see similar, although somewhat smaller, increases in market volatility. If both the RFS and the blend …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013038238
sub-standard economic performance. They are: long-term trends in world commodity prices, volatility, crowding out of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013145250
The national terms of trade, defined as the ratio of an export price index to an import price index has been extensively studied empirically. In this paper we construct an alternative measure, which we call the consumption terms of trade. This measure recognizes the fact that consumers and firms...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013149826
, including influential studies identifying price bubbles in periods of high volatility. Here we consider a model of the market …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013082152
We revisit the issue of fiscal procyclicality in commodity-rich nations -commodity republics in the nomenclature of this paper. Since commodity prices are plausibly a main driver of fiscal policy outcomes in these countries, we focus on the behavior of fiscal variables across the commodity...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013071507
, the role of biofuels in determining recent high corn and other agricultural commodity prices, as well as their volatility … industrial demand for corn, contributing to both higher prices and greater price volatility. But turbulence in recent economic … vary over time in ways that are observable in data. Price volatility and "subsidy incidence" also depend on which regime is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013035869
Poor countries are more volatile than rich countries, and we know this volatility impedes their growth. We also know … that commodity price volatility is a key source of those shocks. This paper explores commodity and manufactures price over … the past three centuries to answer three questions: Has commodity price volatility increased over time? The answer is no …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012764828
to have dealt with the volatility better. Why? This paper explores Australian terms of trade volatility since 1901. It …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012757921