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Simple regression tests that have power against the alternatives that. asset prices and expected future asset returns are excessively volatile are developed and performed for the foreign exchange and stock markets. These tests have a number of advantages over alternative, variance hounds...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012786275
With many emerging market currencies tied to the U.S. dollar either implicitly or explicitly, movements in the exchange values of the currencies of major countries have the potential to influence the competitive position of many developing countries. According to some analysts, establishing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013230967
This paper addresses the puzzle of regime-dependent volatility in foreign exchange. We extend the literature in two … induce volatility under flexible rates because they have portfolio-balance effects on price, whereas under fixed rates the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012763111
We introduce the real exchange rate volatility curve as a useful device to understand the role of price stickiness in … theory predicts that the real exchange rate volatility curve is a U-shaped function of the degree of price stickiness. Using … sector-level European real exchange rate data and frequency of price changes, we estimate the volatility curve. The results …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013311936
Recent empirical work indicates that, in a variety of financial markets, both conditional expectations and conditional variances of returns are time- varying. The purpose of this paper is to determine whether these joint fluctuations of conditional first and second moments are consistent with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013141091
We examine the impact of renminbi revaluation on firm valuations, considering two surprise announcements of changes in China's exchange rate policy in 2005 and 2010 and data on 6,050 firms in 44 countries. Renminbi appreciation has a positive effect on firms exporting to China but little...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013118251
We develop an equilibrium model in which exchange rates, stock prices and capital flows are jointly determined under incomplete forex risk trading. Incomplete hedging of forex risk, documented for U.S. global mutual funds, has three important implications: 1) exchange rates are almost as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012762881
Economists have traditionally viewed futures prices as fully informative about future economic activity and asset prices. We argue that open interest could be more informative than futures prices in the presence of hedging demand and limited risk absorption capacity in futures markets. We find...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013131237
We create a newspaper-based Equity Market Volatility (EMV) tracker that moves with the VIX and with the realized … volatility of returns on the S&P 500. Parsing the underlying text, we find that 72 percent of EMV articles discuss the … Macroeconomic Outlook, and 44 percent discuss Commodity Markets. Policy news is another major source of volatility: 35 percent of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012889473
role for credit growth (beyond its role in constructing the inflation forecast) would reduce the volatility of output and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013137616