In line with the fallacy of riskification of uncertainty by which decision makers believe that the effects of … organizational inefficiency in dealing with uncertainty shocks—exogenous hazards whose welfare effects spread across industries and … markets, such as natural disasters, terrorist attacks, and financial crises—as a problem of risk management. This is …

We review and extend the economic analysis of risk and uncertainty as it relates to behavior mitigating health shocks … for risk-sharing in health by pooling the health care spending risk. In a sense, medical innovation involves a current …

probabilistic terms: we are facing deep uncertainty or ambiguity rather than risk in the classical sense, rendering the classical …Uncertainty is intrinsic to climate change: we know that the climate is changing, but not precisely how fast or in what … available for reducing climate change. Furthermore the uncertainty about these issues is not readily quantified and expressed in …

This paper studies Pareto-optimal risk-sharing arrangements in a private information economy with aggregate uncertainty …

technologies under uncertainty. Specifically, given two technologies, one with lower costs at present, but the other with greater … uncertainty in the returns to R&D, how should one allocate the R&D budget? We develop a multi-stage stochastic dynamic programming … variance in the uncertainty in returns to R&D and with the skewness of the uncertainty. We also present an illustrative case …

collection, we develop and field a new monthly panel Survey of Business Uncertainty. The SBU began in 2014 and now covers about 1 …, firm-level growth expectations are highly predictive of realized growth rates. Second, subjective uncertainty is highly … predictive of forecast errors and the magnitude of future forecast revisions. Third, subjective uncertainty rises with the firm …

the dispersion of individual forecasts around these averages are interpreted as indicating "uncertainty." However …, while uncertainty is properly understood as referring to the diffuseness of the distributions of probabilities that … distributions for the same targets. Thus the former tend to understate uncertainty as measured by the latter. This is so …

the present value of the flow of social benefits minus costs. But the real world is one of considerable uncertainty … discount rates that should be used to compute present values. The implications of uncertainty are complicated by the fact that … horizons. Correctly incorporating uncertainty in policy design is therefore one of the more interesting and important research …