This paper characterizes the frequency domain properties of feedback control rules in linear systems in order to better understand how different policies affect outcomes frequency by frequency. We are especially concerned in understanding how reductions of variance at some frequencies induce...

We derive the limiting distribution of the Oaxaca estimator of average treatment effects studied by Kline (2011). A consistent estimator of the asymptotic variance is proposed that makes use of standard regression routines. It is shown that ignoring uncertainty in group means will tend to lead...

The paper evaluates the usefulness of a nonparametric approach to Bayesian inference by presenting two applications. The approach is due to Ferguson (1973, 1974) and Rubin (1981). Our first application considers an educational choice problem. We focus on obtaining a predictive distribution for...

Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models are often solved and estimated under specific assumptions as to whether the exogenous variables are difference or trend stationary. However, even mild departures of the data generating process from these assumptions can severely bias the...

In applications, the linear multiple regression model is often modified to allow for nonlinearity in an independent variable. It is argued here that in practice it may often be desirable to specify a Bayesian prior that the unknown functional form is "simple" or "uncomplicated" rather than to...

This paper illustrates the usefulness of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods in approximating DSGE model posterior distributions. We show how the tempering schedule can be chosen adaptively, document the accuracy and runtime benefits of generalized data tempering for “online” estimation...

A large sample approximation of the posterior distribution of partially identified structural parameters is derived for models that can be indexed by a finite-dimensional reduced form parameter vector. It is used to analyze the differences between frequentist confidence sets and Bayesian...

The academic literature literally contains hundreds of variables that seem to predict the cross-section of expected returns. This so-called "anomaly zoo" has caused many to question whether researchers are using the right tests of statistical significance. But, here's the thing: even if...

We propose the use of Bayesian estimation of risk preferences of individuals for applications of behavioral welfare economics to evaluate observed choices that involve risk. Bayesian estimation provides more systematic control of the use of informative priors over inferences about risk...

It is widely recognized that the economics of distant-future events, like climate change, is critically dependent upon the choice of a discount rate. Unfortunately, it is unclear how to discount distant-future events when the future discount rate itself is unknown. In previous work, an...