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We consider three questions related to the choice between war in Iraq and a continuation of the pre-war containment … war more or less costly for the United States than containment? Second, compared to war and forcible regime change, would … a continuation of the containment policy have saved Iraqi lives? Third, is war likely to bring about an improvement or …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013219222
This paper attempts to provide a more complete reckoning of the costs of the Iraq War, using standard economic and … underestimate the War's true costs. We estimate a range of present and future costs, by including expenditures not in the $500bn CBO … the war on the overall performance of the economy. Even taking a conservative approach and assuming all US troops return …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013224204
the implications of the war costs themselves. Besides the unanticipated length and breadth of the military conflicts … motivations associated with war cost forecasts by comparing them with other types of aggregate forecasts, which are prone to … similar types of errors. The history of war cost forecasts suggests that increasing their frequency and transparency may …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013141284
Much has been written about the national-security aspects of a potential conflict with Iraq, but there are no studies of the cost. A review of several past wars indicates that nations historically have consistently underestimated the cost of military conflicts. This study reviews the potential...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013249345
While descriptive evidence suggests that deployment in the Global War on Terrorism is associated with adverse mental …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013127425
The French Opposition to the war in Iraq in early 2003, prompted calls for a boycott of French wine in the US. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013211695
We analyze financial market data in order to produce an ex-ante assessment of the economic consequences of war with …'s price provides a plausible estimate of the probability of war. The spot oil price has moved closely with the Saddam Security …, suggesting that war raises oil prices by around $10 per barrel. Futures prices imply that markets expect these large immediate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012762835
Warfare is enormously destructive, and yet countries regularly initiate armed conflict against one another. Even more surprisingly, wars are often quite popular with citizens who stand to gain little materially and may lose much more. This paper presents a model of warfare as the result of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012778156
shortly after the war seem to have dissipated by 2000. While these are important outcomes to economists, by focusing on them …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013131668
war-exposed children subsequently have lower height-for-age Z-scores, and impacts using GPS information are 87-188% larger … in magnitude, and children in the war instigating and losing country (Eritrea) suffer more than the winning nation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013031299