This paper uses a data set of over two hundred years of sovereign debt, banking and inflation crises to explore the question of how long it takes a country to "graduate" from the typical pattern of serial crisis that most emerging markets experience. We find that for default and inflation...

We use the concepts of deliberative democracy from political science and cheap talk from economics to develop a better understanding of how public discussion can contribute to building and demonstrating ownership of IMF programs and hence to program success. We argue that ownership is more...

In this paper, we present a dynamic model which explains output, enployment and energy consumption in the French manufacturing sector in terms of the expectedand actual path of wage rates and energy prices in units of output. The modelhas two distinguishing features: First, the rate of capacity...

This paper raises several cautionary notes regarding high-conditionality lending by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank in the context of international debt crisis. It is argued that the role for high-conditionality lending is more restricted than generally believed, because...

This paper investigates the output effects of IMF-supported stabilization programs, especially those introduced at the time of a severe balance of payments/currency crisis. Using a panel data set over the 1975-97 period and covering 67 developing and emerging-market economies (with 461 IMF...

In this paper I analyze the anatomy of current account adjustments in the world economy during the last three decades. The main findings may be summarized as follows: (a) Major reversals in current account deficits have tended to be associated to sudden stops' of capital inflows. (b) The...

The purpose of this study is to identify conditions under which renewed international. lending will benefit both the developed and the developing countries. Our analysis will evaluate how the presence of terms of trade adjust-rent and distorted credit markets affect the conditions for the...

This is the introductory chapter to an NBER conference volume that examined the lessons to be drawn from the financial and currency crises of the late 1990s. The paper does not attempt to summarize the specific content of that meeting but provides the author's personal conclusions about crisis...

In this paper, we examine the IMF's role in maintaining the access of emerging market economies to international capital markets. We find evidence that both macroeconomic aggregates and capital flows improve following the adoption of an IMF program, although they may initially deteriorate...

The search for "growth-oriented adjustment programs" reflects a widespread malaise concerning IMF stabilization programs in countries suffering from external debt crises. A new orthodoxy is emerging from this search, which links recovery in the debtor countries to a shift to "outward-oriented"...