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Growth Slowdowns Redux: New Evidence on the Middle-Income Trap

Eichengreen, Barry; Shin, Kwanho; Park, Donghyun - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2013

We analyze the incidence and correlates of growth slowdowns in fast-growing middle-income countries, extending the analysis of an earlier paper (Eichengreen, Park and Shin 2012). We continue to find dispersion in the per capita income at which slowdowns occur. But in contrast to our earlier...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010821872

A Long-Run Risks Explanation of Predictability Puzzles in Bond and Currency Markets

Bansal, Ravi; Shaliastovich, Ivan - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2012

We show that bond risk-premia rise with uncertainty about expected inflation and fall with uncertainty about expected growth; the magnitude of return predictability using these two uncertainty measures is similar to that by multiple yields. Motivated by this evidence, we develop and estimate a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010796750

Technology Diffusion: Measurement, Causes and Consequences

Comin, Diego; Mestieri, Martí - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2013

This chapter discusses different approaches pursued to explore three broad questions related to technology diffusion: what general patterns characterize the diffusion of technologies, and how have they changed over time; what are the key drivers of technology, and what are the macroeconomic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010969266

Coordination and Crisis in Monetary Unions

Aguiar, Mark; Amador, Manuel; Farhi, Emmanuel; … - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2014

We characterize fiscal and monetary policy in a monetary union with the potential for rollover crises in sovereign debt markets. Member-country fiscal authorities lack commitment to repay their debt and choose fiscal policy independently. A common monetary authority chooses inflation for the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010969397

Labor Mobility Within Currency Unions

Farhi, Emmanuel; Werning, Iván - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2014

We study the effects of labor mobility within a currency union suffering from nominal rigidities. When the demand shortfall in depressed region is mostly internal, migration may not help regional macroeconomic adjustment. When external demand is also at the root of the problem, migration out of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010969456

A Surplus of Ambition: Can Europe Rely on Large Primary Surpluses to Solve its Debt Problem?

Eichengreen, Barry; Panizza, Ugo - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2014

IMF forecasts and the EU's Fiscal Compact foresee Europe's heavily indebted countries running primary budget surpluses of as much as 5 percent of GDP for as long as 10 years in order to maintain debt sustainability and bring their debt/GDP ratios down to the Compact's 60 percent target. We show...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010950713

International Trade and Intertemporal Substitution

Leibovici, Fernando; Waugh, Michael E. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2014

This paper studies the dynamics of international trade flows at business cycle frequencies. We show that introducing … dynamic considerations into an otherwise standard model of trade can account for several puzzling features of trade flows at … business cycle frequencies. Our insight is that because international trade is time-intensive, variation in the rate at which …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010951040

Current Account Dynamics and Monetary Policy

Gertler, Mark; Svensson, Lars E.O.; Ferrero, Andrea - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2008

We explore the implications of current account adjustment for monetary policy within a simple two-country DSGE model. Our framework nests Obstfeld and Rogoff's (2005) static model of exchange rate responsiveness to current account reversals. It extends this approach by endogenizing the dynamic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005085081

Monetary Policy in a Changing International Environment: The Role of Global Capital Flows

Feldstein, Martin S. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2005

The Feldstein-Horioka study of 1980 found that OECD countries with high saving rates had high investment rates and vice versa, contrary to the traditional theory of global capital market integration. This capital market segmentation view, which has been verified in various studies over the past...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005085291

Persistent Appreciations and Overshooting: A Normative Analysis

Caballero, Ricardo J; Lorenzoni, Guido - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2007

Most economies experience episodes of persistent real exchange rate appreciations, when the question arises whether there is a need for intervention to protect the export sector. In this paper we present a model of irreversible destruction where exchange rate intervention may be justified if the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005777402