We show that "commodity currency" exchange rates have remarkably robust power in predicting global commodity prices, both in-sample and out-of-sample, and against a variety of alternative benchmarks. This result is of particular interest to policymakers, given the lack of deep forward markets in...

Relying upon a standard New Keynesian DSGE, we propose an explanation for two empirical findings in the international finance literature. First, the unbiasedness hypothesis – the proposition that expost exchange rate depreciation matches interest differentials – is rejected much more...

This paper discusses how joint cross country indirect tax initiatives can be used to achieve global rebalancing. This is potentially an important development for G20 discussions which thus far have centered on exchange rates as the instruments to achieve rebalancing. We suggest that if China and...

This paper explores the potential impacts on both China and other major countries of possible mega trade deals. These include the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), and various blocked deals. We use a numerical 13-country global general...

We develop a five-region version (Canada, a group of oil exporting countries, the United States, emerging Asia and Japan plus the euro area) of the Global Economy Model (GEM) encompassing production and trade of crude oil, and use it to study the international transmission mechanism of shocks...

The confluence of three trends in the U.S. residential housing market---rising home prices, declining interest rates, and near-frictionless refinancing opportunities---led to vastly increased systemic risk in the financial system. Individually, each of these trends is benign, but when they occur...