-core variables are obtained by applying their measurement equations to DSGE model-generated forecasts of the state variables. Using a … medium-scale New Keynesian DSGE model, we apply our approach to generate and evaluate recursive forecasts for PCE inflation …

We use data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters to compare point forecasts of GDP growth and inflation with the … subsequent surveys. These findings, plus the inescapable fact that point forecasts reveal nothing about the uncertainty that … forecasters feel, suggest that the SPF and similar surveys should not ask for point forecasts. It seems more reasonable to elicit …

to which the forecasts are influenced by (i) how the factors are estimated, and/or (ii) how the forecasts are formulated … are better in long horizon forecasts, especially when the number of time series observations is small. However, when the … method stands out to have smaller forecast errors. This method forecasts the series of interest directly, rather than the …

macroeconomic variables. However, their dense parameterization leads to unstable inference and inaccurate out-of-sample forecasts …